It occurred to me the @BretWeinstein is crafting his concern about the covid19 vaccines in a way to appeal to a specific crowd and avoiding the more likely dangerous scenario. This is why his message is biased and self-serving. Let me explain.
Weinstein argues that there is a concern that vaccines being imperfect (as they always are) will give the virus an opportunity for a breakthrough that can lead to an arms race. Oddly enough, he doesn't apply the same logic for cures like the unsubstantiated one he promotes.
However, the obvious danger is that the mRNA virus mutates faster proportionally to the size of the unvaccinated and infected group. We already saw this in India where the most dangerous delta variant emerged from a huge population of unvaccinated.
In the US scenario, the unvaccinated population are likely to take the brunt of the infections (obviously). It is also more likely to mutate as covid19 hijacks the unvaccinated's bodies to serve as petri-dishes for new variants.
But does @BretWeinstein mention this in this presentation? No, because this scenario scares his audience. He rather promotes the less likely scary scenario because it comforts his audience's poor decision-making. But let me make another even scarier scenario.
Do you remember the story of Typhoid Mary. It's possible for vaccinated people to contract the virus and have no symptoms. They become walking Typhoid Marys. So it's possible that the vaccinated people become vectors to infect the unvaccinated.
In this scenario, it's mass death and suffering among the unvaccinated. The fact that CDC allows the vaccinated to not wear masks exacerbates a scenario like this. But do you see anybody mentioning this scary scenario? I haven't heard of it, yet Weinstein ignores mention of it.
The value of contrarian opinions like @BretWeinstein is that it explores alternative possible dangerous scenarios. But it does not help if only a small slice of the possible scenarios is promoted. Only the slice that fits a narrative.
The ultimate scary scenario for the conservatives is that US has deployed a cure that was consumed by a majority of left-leaning citizens and as a consequence, they become unknowing spreaders of a break-out version that kills a vast number of unvaccinated conservatives.
Weinstein's scary scenario in fact implies that breakthrough variants are more likely and thus this scenario is also more likely. Surprisingly he shuts completely up about this scenario.
Perhaps conservatives should frame the pandemic as a war against their survival. If the covid virus was indeed engineered, then should they not be taking precautions like wearing masks?
It defies logic. When a narrative defies logic then one has to suspect malice. The current right-wing community is nothing more than a tabloid money-making business that drives its revenue by appealing to the bias of its audience. It's all fiction. It's sloppy and inconsistent.
One can argue the same about many religious organizations in their sphere. These are nothing but money-making ventures that enrich their pastors. The reason we can't have universal health care is because religious groups provide an alternative.
That is, if you can't afford the health services to care for your sickness, then the next best thing is prayer. If your convictions tell you to refuse the vaccine, then the next best thing is arguments that it's a wise choice.
Machine learning algorithms are very good at curve-fitting models. But what kind of technology is available for explaining models that are intuitive to humans? medium.com/intuitionmachi…
When AlphaGo executed move #37, what was its explanation? The only explanation was that a human would not make the same move. Is this a good explanation?
It is curious to note that AlphaGo was aware of what was a human move. This is perhaps not the case for AlphaZero that trained from scratch. How does AlphaZero explain itself in terms of human abstractions that it does not know about?
I'm composing this tweetstorm from a tweetstorm of a dream I had. It begins with the idea that Ptolemy's model of the movement of the planets was extremely accurate.
Ptolemy's model was accurate enough to be very useful for navigators of their time. But it worked well because it was finely tuned to fit with observed experimental data.
But was wrong with Ptolemy's model is that it did not correctly capture cause and effect. The earth and the planets revolve around the sun due to gravity and not everything revolves around the earth. This was the Copernicus model which he paid gravely for proposing.
It occurs to me that modern society has led to the perspective that we have immense control of our lives. This was not always true in the past where people could die for many reasons out of their control.
The modern understanding of the word 'tragedy' is that it when someone suffers for something that they could have avoided entirely. That there exists this means of control one's destiny and that it was ignored.
We see this play out on a mass scale with our actions in the pandemic (facemasks and vaccinations) and our absence of risk mitigation against climate change. But we remain utterly perplexed as to why people can't see the tragedy that is happening in slow motion?
It is a surprise to many that the math used in physics is a weird kind of handwavy math.
"Quantum field theory is mathematics that has not yet been invented by mathematicians." quantamagazine.org/the-mystery-at…
The math in physics is not as rigorous as found in math but it works with extreme accuracy! Maps (i.e. models) are not the territory, but you want your maps to accurately represent the territory.
As Feynman has said "It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."