Feels like we're coming up to an inflection point.
Both price and volume on $BTC hasn't been as compressed within this range as it is right now.
This usually leads to a big move.
1/12
Bearish Case 🐻
I've mentioned this before, but if $BTC were to go back to 30K, I doubt it holds again and I would be looking at $23-26K.
This is where I'd be buying more spot from some of the fiat profits I took out during this run.
2/12
I am doing this because I'm personally a long term believer in $BTC and Crypto as a whole and I would be very comfortable buying BTC at such prices and just holding it for the next few years to come.
This is obviously my personal preference and no financial advice.
3/12
Breaking down from this range would mean we're getting a much longer drawn out consolidation/bear market throughout the summer. I don't see price trade within the mid 20Ks for a few days only to reverse right after.
It would likely take several weeks/months.
4/12
After which I do think we'll go much higher again towards the later part of this year. But that's just my guess.
All in all, whatever happens I'm not worried and If anything, spot buys around these levels are much better R:R than selling hoping to buy back lower.
5/12
Bullish Case 🐂
The bulls should have absolutely no reason to get back to the range lows ($30K) yet again, after sweeping it and then retesting it afterwards.
If we want to see a bullish continuation, I think this should happen as soon as possible.
6/12
What also helps with this idea is the fact that those range highs at $42.5-43K are STILL untouched. This doesn't have to happen of course but it would be a great place for a huge liquidity grab.
All while funding has been negative for most of this range.
7/12
Lastly, not particularly bullish nor bearish at this point, but the daily RSI has been touched (and rejected) about 6 times now.
It looks like BTC is really trying to break through but to no avail so far.
8/12
To summarize: I do think we're getting close to that deciding move within this range.
If $BTC breaks down, that likely stretches out this entire consolidation/bear market however you want to call it for a few more months before going up again.
9/12
If $BTC breaks out of this range we may have the luxury to slowly look at 50-60K prices again a lot sooner.
10/12
I'm personally just sitting tight in my spot. Trading $BTC & alts to stack sats and will buy more spot $BTC IF we do go lower.
And one positive thing to take away from these low prices if you're still holding is that relatively, the downside should be limited here compared to the highs we were at a few months ago.
Take care and have a good day! 😄
12/12
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We all know we're in a range. This range is defined by the $30K Low on the 19th of May and the $43K High made on the same day.
2/10
During this range we've seen sentiment shift from bearish to bullish after each few percent move. Which is very common during such sideways market movements.
Disclaimer: I understand it's not that simple and markets move this way. I'm also quite new to all this macro stuff. Just some thoughts.
What I find funny is how the FEDs said they weren't worried at all and then the May CPI numbers hit and we saw the highest inflation numbers in over a decade.
Now all of the sudden they will increase rates an entire year earlier to battle this.
Even though they weren't worried, right?
On this news, of course the dollar rallies and equities & other things sell off. Which is all very normal in terms of market movements.
Took out the first high and in doing that, also made a tiny higher high on the daily which is promising for a further reversal.
We did open up with a CME gap, these don't have to fill but they often do.
1/5
Having said that, not coming back to fill the gap, would once again leave a lot of people behind which wouldn't surprise me either. Just keep it in mind.
I do believe we will take out the other highs at $40.8 and $42.5K soon enough.
2/5
We've only seen $367M in short liquidations yesterday. This isn't nearly as much as we should see during a proper short squeeze after being down here for a few weeks with negative funding.
I expect the most to occur when breaching that last 42.5K level.