Thread by @Teri_Kanefield

Since the indictment was filed against the Trump Org. and Allen Weisselberg, there’s been lots of media spin and lying (and some misunderstanding) about the indictment.

Here I dissect the lies (and misunderstandings) and why they matter.


1/

Here’s an edited transcription if you prefer to read:
terikanefield.com/the-trump-org-……

I'll come back after a bit more ☕️ and write a Twitter Summary hitting the main points.

2/

Last week I talked about the bogus legal defenses being offered on behalf of the Trump Org and Weisselberg.

It’s easy to mock the stupid legal arguments offered by Team Trump. He usually loses in court. He lost all those elections cases.

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But he wins in the Court of Right-Wing Opinion, and that makes him dangerous.

Last week, he gave a speech that was widely circulated. I transcribed an important snippet.

He effectively mischaracterized the indictment.

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The indictment said this (#1) and Trump said this (#2)

There's a big difference between driving a company car and getting 2 free Mercedez Benz automobiles

(actually sort of more because they were leased, so I assume Weisselberg and wife always drove a new car)

5/

About the "company apartment," the indictment said this (#1) and Trump said this (#2)

Staying overnight in a company apartment when you work late and don’t want to go home is quite different from living rent-free (and tax-free) in Manhattan for 15 years.

6/

Trump spun an indictment for 15 counts of tax fraud and falsification of records this way ⤵️

One poll showed that 51% of voters think this prosecution was politically motivated. It's only one poll and it's early in the process, but still. thehill.com/hilltv/what-am…

7/

I felt the need to take on what feels like a Sacred Truth of Twitter, which goes like this (if I understand many of the comments I get):

Trump World keeps criming because they never face consequences. The implication is that if they do face consequences, they’ll stop.

8/

I say baloney. Hitler was in prison and then went on to become Chancellor of Germany. Anyone who voted for Trump in 2020 had enough evidence that Trump was a lawbreaker, but they didn’t care.

Didn't Manafort keep committing crimes in prison? (I couldn't find a link)

9/

They commit crimes because it’s the only way they have to gain wealth and power. And without wealth and power, they are nothing.

Some of Trump’s hardcore supporters don’t care if he cheats or steals because they like what he’s trying to do.

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Some like his lawbreaking because they want to destroy.

Some just like lawbreaking. Can you imagine these guys saying, “Trump is in trouble with the law, so let’s all learn to play nice.”

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From @ruthbenghiat’s book, leaders like Trump fall from influence and power when conservative elites stop propping them up.

The important question is: What will cause the elites to stop propping Trump up?

Another Sacred Truth of Twitter is about Lindsay Graham's about-face.
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In 2016 he said this (#1) and now he says this (#2).

What changed is that he saw how Trump was able to mobilize and get people to the polls who usually don't vote. Trump reached to the people the GOP was previously afraid of openly embracing.

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The moderates fled and now the GOP is dependent on votes from guys like ⤵️. Without them, the GOP elites see no path forward.

Trump has also taught Republicans how to perfect the art of disinformation. He illustrated the effectiveness of the Firehose of Falsehoods method.
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The GOP elites prop Trump up because it is in their best interests (politically and financially) to do so.

When it is no longer in their best interests, they will stop.

The idea is to make it no longer in their best interests. There are multiple ways, but no easy way.

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One way is if in the coming indictments Trump is no longer able to spin them. (I'm in the group that believes there will be more).

Some things get harder to spin.

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There's a big difference between a rich guy cheating once in a while (which is what it looks like now to his supporters) and a crook who is only wealthy because he cheats.

I'll stop here because this is getting long and I hit most of the main points.

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Here is the key: A certain percentage of the people will stick with him no matter what, and that includes certain elected officials who are Trump wannabes.

But the Republican Party is already a minority party with shrinking demographics . . .

https://twitter.com/Andsclpa/status/1414243340552376326

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The behavior you see as they try to rig elections comes from desperation because their numbers are shrinking.

Reportedly, after the insurrection, more people peeled off and changed their voter registration.

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Maybe not a lot, but if you're a minority party and you start losing any percentage, you're in trouble.

There's a huge difference between winning 46% of the vote nationwide and 43 or 44%.

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The problem is that as they shrink they'll become more dangerous because they'll become even more dependent on these guys ⤵️for money and support.

But keeping control does get harder with shrinking numbers-- as long as everyone else stays engaged and motivated.

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This is a perfect summary of the GOP situation. Many true conservatives have left, but there remains a small number who've always identified as Republican, who don't want to vote otherwise, and who keep finding ways to rationalize it. . . until they can't.

https://twitter.com/ArchibaldZambo1/status/1414266362487320582

Trying to persuade them won't help. They have to finally feel confronted with something they can't rationalize.

I saw it with people I know who identify as conservative. It took some longer than others. Some will stay through thick and thin. Some will reach their limits.

https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1414265056234119168

Sorry this is getting so long, but I responded to a comment here ⤵️ It continues the Lindsay Graham discussion.

I didn't name the Sacred Truth of Twitter, but you all knew I meant the Kompromat theory.