Another thread that ignores data from the ONS & even recent PHE data post-delta emergence that show rises in transmission in school-age children preceded rises in other age groups & uses flawed serological methods that have been shown to underestimate infections in children.
Why are less flawed methodologies never cited? Is it because they don't support these claims?
There's no doubt now that schools without mitigations play a substantial role in transmission. Let's stop denying this.
It's the denial of these very clear facts that's left our children without protections- from mitigations or vaccination.
If you're a scientist and your use of a biased methodology (symptom-based case ascertainment, routine serology without adjustment for underdetection in children) produces different results than less biased methods, then it's worth reviewing your methodology.
These are literally PHE's own results (which are biased by symptom-based ascertainment that disproportionately underestimates infections in children) Even these show that infection rates rose in secondary school children before other age groups. Look at the grey line.
Here's ONS data from last year showing that when there are lockdowns when schools are open, infections in children are the latest to drop & remain high, but when schools are closed, infections drop first in children & then the rest of the community (orange & red dashed lines)
Let's address the 'it's better to do it now than in winter argument', because this is a completely false one, and it's been disappointing to see even scientists repeat it without a full understanding of the options being weighed, and the problems with models assessing this.
This argument is based on the Imperial model which compared reopening in late July vs reopening in winter. Things the model didn't assess:
-booster doses for vulnerable
-vaccinating children
-mitigations in schools before re-opening in Sept
-long COVID
-variant adaptation
Of course when you don't include any of these possibilities - then having mass infection in children over the summer (in the hope they develop immunity from infection) blunts the impact of school-reopenings in winter *on deaths* - when vaccine immunity the vulnerable is waning.
Predictable but worrying data showing continuing rises in daily case numbers and a increases in hospitalisations. We're now seeing 500 daily hospitalisations, and some NHS trusts are already having to cancel routine operations & delay cancer care. 🧵
The spread among school-age children and young adults is frankly quite shocking. The almost vertical line here says it all.
Most outbreaks are in educational settings - rapid increases week on week. Large numbers of outbreaks in both primary and secondary schools.
This tone-policing message from a paediatrician in my DMs. The ONS data shows we have 9000 children now living with long COVID for > 1 yr. Why do we need to understand 'how it differs from post-viral syndromes' to take it seriously. Isn't the suffering of those affected enough?🧵
If other post-viral syndromes are this severe, surely we should be taking all of them seriously, not dismissing this one. Shouldn't paediatricians be basing their level of concern on the symptoms being reported by those affected? I'm a clinician, and have always done this.
The notion that this may be 'psychological issues in young people' at a point in time evidence tells us this is a neuroinvasive virus that causes multi-organ dysfunction even in young adults (studies not done in children so far), with markers of thrombo-microngiopathy in children
Our letter in @TheLancet signed by >120 scientists on the government's dangerous strategy of allowing mass infection. We call on govt to pause its plans & take urgent action to protect the public
The governments strategy of letting cases surge while only half our population is fully vaccinated is beyond reckless. This will create a generation of young with chronic illness who could've been vaccinated in the coming weeks.
We are holding an emergency summit tomorrow at 10am to outline our grave concerns about the UK government’s current strategy & the urgent steps we need to take to protect our public.🧵
What on earth is going on with the mess that is govt's current COVID-19 strategy? Not only is it completely unscientific, it's also unethical and inhumane. We must not accept what can only be described as mass endangerment of children & young people. We must challenge this.🧵
Yesterday, the govt announced dropping mandatory restrictions on the 19th July. Sajid Javid admitted today that this may well lead to 100,000 daily cases over the summer- as @JonAshworth says this means 5000 cases of long COVID each day. theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
The estimates by @guardian of 2 million cases over the summer are quite conservative. @chrischirp estimates suggest 90-100K daily cases by 19th July if growth continues as is. As @chrischirp shows, this would mean *1 million* cases by 19th July alone.