It strikes me that there has been a disjuncture - which has abruptly ended - between why people vote as they do; and the appeals which political parties make to people. 1/8
We know that most people vote on the basis that the promises of the party they vote for best match *their* interests and preferences. They vote, in other words, for their selfish interests. 2/
Of course, different people define their interests in different ways. They are also more or less rooted in their community, society etc.
The party which succeeds in best appealing to more people's interests tends to win elections. 3/
The more COVID hospitalisations there are, the less capacity the NHS has to deal with other conditions.
That's right, isn't it? 1/4
The more cases there are, the more hospitalisations there will be. Not at the rate of the second wave, but still.
And the more we lift restrictions, the more cases there will be. 2/4
So... why do SO MANY people argue that we need to lift restrictions now so as to enable the NHS to focus on the huge backlog in relation to other diseases? 3/4
In this thread I listed 5 major policy areas in which, win in Batley or Spen or not, @uklabour seems to be divided: Brexit, the economy, winning elections, COVID and the culture war. 1/5
It would be interesting to know what Labour supporters think about each of the issues (the divide is not a simple left/right or leave/remain divide), and what priority they would give to each of them (or any other pressing issue). 2/5
It would also be interesting to know more about how the Labour leadership is seeking to tackle them, and what (if any) steps they are taking to build support within the party for its (unavoidably contentious) policy positions. 3/5
In the aftermath of Labour's win in #BatleyAndSpen, and in particular the many comments thereon, a thread on the huge the challenges the party faces. 1/11
On all sides of the party there are many people who seek to offer prescriptions of what is needed to revive Labour's fortunes. Their views are strongly held. It seems impossible that evidence, of any kind, will shift them. 2/
The problem is that these strongly-held clear prescriptions, clash. Much of the comment fails to acknowledge that all the 'solutions' face loud, heart-felt opposition within the party. 3/
A thread on #euro2020... and on the prospects of 'it coming home' (this is mainly for my 2 overexcited kids).
In the heady aftermath of the win v Germany, and looking at the seemingly inviting 'path to the final', it is easy to get carried away. 1/9
Add to that the seemingly impregnable defence, the home advantage in the semi and the final, and the leadership of Gareth Southgate (see theplayerstribune.com/posts/dear-eng…) and you 'dare to dream'. 2/
But... we have only made it into the last 8. So, there are 7 other nations who will be thinking that this might be their year. They all have hope. For now. There will only be one winner. 3/