Americans believe that progress can and must be made, because that's the only lesson their history teaches.

The US is not up to 250 years old, and for all the twists and turns in its history, it has only moved in one direction - the direction of progress.
There is no "rise and fall of empires" in the American story, or centuries of stagnation - but this is very common in the world outside the US.

So while Americans cannot help but be optimistic, in vast swathes of the world, cynicism is typical.
This optimism is a double edged sword, especially when taken advantage of by US policy makers.

Many Americans genuinely believed that Afghanistan and Iraq could be remade in America's image. This was never realistic, but they believed it nonetheless.
This belief turned into despair, and despair soon turned into a desire to withdraw from the world.

Trump rode on this wave, and today there's a lot less enthusiasm about the outside world.

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More from @cchukudebelu

12 Jul
The naval buildup in China today, is of a similar scale to the naval buildup in Imperial Germany in the 1890s right up to WW1.

China launched a destroyer, a nuclear submarine and a helicopter carrier on the same day - and they have three more destroyers nearing completion.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Just like the Royal Navy was uneasy with Germany's naval buildup, the US Navy is uncomfortable with the People Liberation Army Navy's buildup.

Give the PLAN another ten years & Washington will be freaking out.
Great Britain and Imperial Germany did not manage their rivalry well, and things came to a head during WW1 - in the Battle of Jutland.

US and China aren't managing their rivalry well, and things might come to a head in the South China Sea.
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
When the Industrial Revolution took off in Northern England, the British realized they needed slaves a lot less - so they were the first to outlaw slavery. They felt they could bear the economic costs.

The US South's economy was built on slavery, they had a different opinion.
I'm the last person who will ever believe that the West "fought against slavery out of the goodness of their hearts".

If that were the case, they would have fought slavery in the 18th Century (before the Industrial Revolution), not in the 19th (after it).
In the US, the industrialized North (whose economy was not built on slavery) fought the South (which depended on slavery and was slow to adopt the Industrial Revolution).

Russia finally abandoned serfdom (which was close to slavery) as it industrialized. Not before then.
Read 4 tweets
24 May
If Beijing loses interest in Africa, so will Washington.

We've watched this movie before. Once the Cold War ended, and Moscow was no longer a major player in Africa, Washington lost interest in Africa - left it to Beijing.

"Cold War hysteria" has rekindled some "interest".
Problem is that Washington has no real, sustained interest in Africa that isn't linked to the activities of some external actor, be it Al Qaeda or Beijing.

We saw this in the 1990s, when Washington pretty much lost all interest in Africa.
US policy makers know average Americans have no interest in Africa, so selling scare stories about "China taking over Africa", might trigger interest.

But even at that, the attitude of most Americans to Africa is, "let China have that sh*t hole, we've wasted enough money there".
Read 4 tweets
22 May
I remember reading an expensive report which claimed more tires were sold in Abuja than Lagos.

I quickly discarded it, but a foreign analyst, with no knowledge of Nigeria's context might not know, and still quote the report.
A big problem with data from Africa, is that a lot of it is not reliable.

I've paid for expensive reports, only to figure out that they simply lifted data from the UN Comtrade database and the NBS, and done little else.

Much of this data might not be reliable.
In fact, in many cases, you are better off designing your own survey questionnaires and sending people to the field to obtain the data. (It could be even cheaper and more reliable than some of these expensive reports).
Read 4 tweets
21 Apr
I think the collapse of research in Nigerian universities in the wake of the IMF/SAP era is one of the biggest tragedies in our history.

Western funding/academics now dominated research, and research topics were determined by Western, not local interests.
At one point, you had to write something about HIV/AIDS to get research funding, or act a subordinate to some Western researcher.

Oil and gas companies determined the direction of research, they were only interested in limiting their liability for oil spills/environmental issues
The Niger Delta Militancy triggered an inflow of research dollars, as the US still depended heavily on Nigerian crude (this was before the advent of Shale Oil and Gas).

Along came 9/11 and Boko Haram, and millions of dollars went into funding research into "radicalization".
Read 6 tweets
21 Apr
In North Korea, Kim Il Sung handed over to his son, Kim Jong Il, who then handed over to his son, Kim Jong Un, some say with "Chinese support";

But there are many examples in Africa.

1. Omar Bongo to Ali Bongo (Gabon, French support).
2. Gnassingbe Eyadema to Faure Gnassingbe (Togo, French support).
3. Idriss Deby to Mahamat Deby (Chad, French support).

Likely father to son dictator transitions.
1. Paul Biya to Frank Biya (Cameroon, French support)
2. Museveni to Muhoozi Kainerugaba (Uganda, US & UK support)
3. Paul Kagame to Ivan Kagame (Rwanda, US, UK & "international development community" support).
4. Teodoro Obiang Nguema to Teodoro Nguema Obiang (Equatorial Guinea, US support - especially from ExxonMobil and the Oil & Gas Industry).
Read 4 tweets

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