Currently we are in a low volume post the new margin rules and a low volatility zone. (Defined volatility as basic daily range ( high -low))
It's apparently obvious the trading volume should be highly correlated with volatility, though it's difficult to establish causality
A good argument can be that heavy trading volume moves the underlying price more thus increasing volatility OR
volatility induces traders to trade more thus increasing volume.

I tried to test this hypothesis
The above chart shows volume and volatility data on Nifty fut since inception. Volume on the X axis and volatility on the Y axis. The correlation coefficient since inception is 0.54. But initial days on Nifty fut were of low volume, so I tested for last 5 years and it's 0.78
So the assumption going forward can be that as long as this low volume continues, intraday volatility will be low.

How does one use this data ?
1. Intraday option selling can generally be a good strategy, option buyers will suffer ( decay > delta)
2. Intraday support resistances based on ranges will mostly hold rather than breakouts/breakdowns
Generally all daytrading strategies are of broadly two types, either mean reversion or breakouts. This seems to be a market where mean reverting strategies on intraday should work much better than breakout trading

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More from @SubhadipNandy16

12 Jul
This is the part screenshot of the entry. Do mark the time and read on
Read 9 tweets
12 Jul
The Nifty trade
Lost on the Bear spread carried overnight, stopped out when 15800 was breached. Made that and more on the breakdown
Had same 2100 qty on the 15800 weekly PE, from 90 to 155 in a flash. day's job done. Nowadays after one such move, better to stay away or one gives back money 😋
Read 5 tweets
10 Jul
Basic primer on options greeks via @YouTube
Made this video almost a year ago , Delta and Gamma in actual trading. Broad analysis, ignore the obvious mistakes . This again was made to explain simply

How rho affects options ( received question on this) :

Read 9 tweets
8 Jul
When a trade goes our way, all is good. But 50% of the time , it won't. What separates a good options trader from bad is how we adjust when things do not go our way. This is why I sometimes don't post these trades at closing, I know how to adjust and escape unscathed.
But unless one has a strong grounding of the greeks and understands the nuances of this strategy, one would freeze like a deer caught in the headlights and suffer losses. It's not always possible for me to post adjustments in a fast moving markets specially in BNF
The quoted thread will give you a good idea on how an options buyer also adjusts his positions, for which I have a few iron rules
1. No extra capital must be used
2. Trade must remain define risk
3. Enough time must be there to let the trade work out
Read 5 tweets
8 Jul
May be in small pressure on the spread at opening, will adjust as required. Quite a few asked for the adjustment logic, will share if i require to do this.
Plan is : If opens lower, will sqoff the sold leg fully, sqoff 50% of the bought leg, will short higher OTM 50%
Did the adjustments. This screenshot was my trade before opening, the one I was holding
Sqedod off the 36000ce sold leg
sqed 50% of the 36400ce buy trade
shorted 36500ce rest 50% converting to 36400-500 bull call spread
Sqed 36500 a bit lower and shorted 36600ce

Trade now a bull call spread 36400-36600. Defined risk trade now
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul
This tweet will create a lot of controversy 😀
But this is what the charts say : ( all rates Nifty spot)
1. Today we had a breakout
2. Tomorrow also we need to close above 15840 for this breakout to be valid ( Dow's two consecutive day closing rule)
3. Flag breakout with target 16840 by 20th Aug 2021
4. SL : close below 15779

What makes this very interesting is the high Risk-reward ratio. Risk can be easily controlled by appropriate options strategies
RSI has given a breakout. But again, wait for this breakout to confirm by tomorrow's closing
Read 6 tweets

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