Thread by @gladstein

1/ This chart from a 2014 @BichlerNitzan paper is mind-blowing.

Grey bars show when the "Petro-Core" (BP/Chevron/Exxon/Mobile/Shell) beat the Fortune 500, black bars show poor performance.

The explosion symbols are outbreaks of war in the Middle East.

bnarchives.yorku.ca/420/3/20141100…

2/ As the authors note, periods of poor "Petro-Core" performance are *predictive* of Middle East conflict.

"Every energy conflict save one was preceded by the Petro-Core trailing the average" - in other words: oil giants have to "differentially decumulate" for conflict to erupt.

3/ Every energy conflict was followed by the oil companies beating the Fortune 500 average.

War and conflict in the region, usually blamed for undermining the regional economy, "have served the interest of the large oil companies at the expense of leading non-oil firms"

4/ With just one exception, the Petro-Core "never managed to beat the average without there first being an energy conflict in the region. In other words, the differential performance of the oil companies depends not on production, but on the most extreme form of sabotage: war"

5/ The authors say these patterns "appear almost too simple" compared to sophisticated explanations of war + conflict in the Middle East.

And yet, they say, "this kaleidoscope of complex specificities gets enfolded into the differential accumulation of capital" from oil profits.

6/ Bichler + Nitzan call the protagonists the "Weapondollar-Petrodollar" Coalition and they have been studying its actions for more than four decades.

They conclude that whenever the Coalition is doing well, it prefers peace. But when its profits wither, it pushes for conflict.

7/ This model has allowed Bichler + Nitzan to predict -- in writing -- the first Gulf War, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iraq War.

8/ The authors also have a model that links corporate amalgamation with stagflation, showing a historical relationship between business profitability and inflation.

They basically argue that when the former suffers, the latter needs to be pushed to keep the system going.

9/ The net result, they say, is that as opposed to the 1970s, the "pro-inflation" coalition is much more broadly based now, encompassing not just the Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition but all kinds of other entities and sectors.

10/ "It is obvious," they say, "that tension and war in the region would be more than welcome by everyone who stands to benefit from such inflation... it shouldn't surprise us to see the oil companies again flying high and the region once more erupting in flames"

Depressing.

11/ One more tidbit, food for thought:

“In 2013, Exxon’s net profit stood at $32.6 – a figure 15.8 times larger than the net profit earned by the typical Fortune 500 firm ($2.2 billion) and 103,578 times larger than the net profit of the average U.S. corporation ($308,945)”