Great thread.

There is an amazing degree of commonality between the political dynamics & ultimate effects of race merchants in places like SA and what is occurring in US - albeit in a diluted form. Greater "race" consciousness invariably ends up harming those it claims to help.
One of the great tragedies of the second half of the 20th C is that while many Asians studied STEM in the US, and brought that knowledge back to Asia to drive economic development, African expat students tended to study the humanities & onboard left wing/identity political ideas.
They took that knowledge back and went into politics, and these imported ideologies amplified already tense ethnic and religious divisions and in many instances contributed to the emergence of decades of civil war, economic turmoil, and in some cases even genocide.
The mechanism was generally via race-based political entrepreneurs currying up resentment towards a "privileged" group, who were often groups of highly productive immigrants, leading to economic dispossession, persecution, people fleeing the country followed by economic collapse.
The ideas are very dangerous and are the cause of much unneeded suffering. Equal rights for all citizens regardless of race is a noble cause. Race based resentments over inequalities, historical injustices, etc tends to lead to economic impoverishment and violence/civil war.
One important difference in the US is that the "privileged" group most often targeted - caucasians - is also the majority rather than minority - at least for now and in the foreseeable future. This limits the degree to which the ideas can spiral into dispossession & persecution.
There are some minority "privileged" groups in the US though, such as jews and to a lesser extent Asians. There has been a rise in anti-Semitism and anti-Asian sentiment/violence/discrimination in the US in recent years, which is a predictable outcome of identity politics.

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More from @LT3000Lyall

14 Jul
To a hammer, everything looks like a nail, and everything except nails is unimportant.

One also suspects that many epidemiologists have come to rather enjoy their elevation in status and relevance during the pandemic, and are reluctant to let it go.
Dentists will tell you you shouldn't ever drink soft drink or eat sugar. In their world, optimizing dental hygiene is the most important aspiration a human being should ever pursue. But humans value lots of other things too.

Epidemiologists are the same.
There is more to life than minimizing risk at any cost, and there is also more to life than maximizing life expectancy at any cost. Life is about taking calculated risks, and quality matters as much as quantity. I would rather have 70 happy years than 80 miserable ones.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
A lot of people mistake for conspiracy theories dynamics that are actually caused by incentives and people being unwilling to risk their jobs/incomes. It leads to self-censorship and people saying and behaving in ways they perceive as necessary to not attract unwanted scrutiny.
Being able to freely speak your mind is a position of privilege most people lack. You need to be financially independent and not beholden to the whims of your employer. Most people need to be sensitive to politics in what they say & do and are not in a position to risk their job.
Journalists need to worry about what their boss will think, how their story/view will be perceived and the potential reputational impact. Academics have to worry about how their institution & peers will react & the implications of their views on their opportunity for tenure.
Read 10 tweets
13 Jul
In a world where high risk populations have already been vaccinated, and covid variants appear to be following the typical attenuating evolutionary path (higher transmissibility, lower lethality), the number of “cases” is no longer the relevant metric, only hospitalizations.
Countries that continue to insist on stamping out all "cases" are fighting a losing (and costly) battle. That approach was justified when there were no vaccines; hospitals were at risk of overcrowding; and treatment experience was low. That's no longer the case in many countries.
There is a very common human tendency to fail to change your way of thinking/behaviour as circumstances and evidence changes. As Keynes said, the challenge is often not with the new ideas, but escaping the old. I fear this could be a long and costly problem with covid policy.
Read 5 tweets
3 Jul
I've spent some time researching covid mRNA vaccines of late, trying to parse a lot of the conflicting information we are receiving. My conclusions are as follows. Disclosure - I've been pro vaccine my entire life and never been part of the "anti vax" movement, nor am I atm.
Firstly - efficacy - the mRNA vaccines work. I'm convinced that if everyone in the world took them, the pandemic would very likely be end & covid would struggle to survive, including new variants given the very small level of DNA-level evolution (0.3%) in new variants.
For this reason, and given that everyone has an obvious interest in ending the pandemic, there is therefore very strong institutional support for getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible.
Read 18 tweets
3 Jul
The left likes to describe the right as being "anti science". But what I have noticed is that in many/most cases, when they say "anti science", what they really mean is "anti authority". (thread).
It doesn't matter how decorated & qualified a scientist is; how well qualified they are to comment; and how compelling the substantive scientific arguments made are, if the conclusions go against the proclamations of a authoritative body, they will be deemed "anti science".
Where the left has a point is that in many cases, the consensus is right, and the fringe views of dissenting thinkers might be consistent with a less rigorous process; dubious incentives; or outright conspiracy mongering. However...
Read 10 tweets
26 May
I'm so tired of reading references to an oil "price war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia. There has never been any such price war. What there actually was was simply a disagreement amongst OPEC+ as to best strategy for dealing with global oversupply (continued).
Saudi Arabia believed OPEC+ should cut production to reduce global oversupply. Russia believed this would merely encourage more shale production and would thus be futile long term, and believed high-cost marginal US shale producers needed to bear the burden of supply adjustment.
This disagreement has been ongoing for several years, and continued early into the pandemic. However, after it became apparent how severe the near term demand impact would be from covid-19, Russia acknowledged a need for output reductions given the extraordinary circumstances.
Read 6 tweets

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