A lot of people mistake for conspiracy theories dynamics that are actually caused by incentives and people being unwilling to risk their jobs/incomes. It leads to self-censorship and people saying and behaving in ways they perceive as necessary to not attract unwanted scrutiny.
Being able to freely speak your mind is a position of privilege most people lack. You need to be financially independent and not beholden to the whims of your employer. Most people need to be sensitive to politics in what they say & do and are not in a position to risk their job.
Journalists need to worry about what their boss will think, how their story/view will be perceived and the potential reputational impact. Academics have to worry about how their institution & peers will react & the implications of their views on their opportunity for tenure.
Politicians have to worry about how their views will be reported on and perceived, and the implications for their electoral prospects. CEOs have to worry about adverse publicity and the risk saying/doing unpopular/unconventional things could lead to calls for their removal.
The heads of government-funded institutions, whose appointments are political, have to worry about how their views/actions will be perceived and the implications it could have current and future appointments. And the employees further down the line do what their bosses want.
When you see an all-out embrace of a political narrative, often in defiance of obvious facts and evidence, it can appear to be a conspiracy, but it's not. It's politics and self-interest/self-preservation. People simply say & do what they need to say & do to get what they want.
This is how, incidentally, all kinds of ideological movements have swept through human societies throughout history, from the Chinese Cultural Revolution, to Nazism and Soviet ideologies. Everyone visibly tows the line because it's in their personal interests to do so.
It is important to understand that our system does not tend naturally towards rationality and truth, which is what many assume. It tends towards political narratives & ideologies driven by special interests, that often significantly decouple from truth.
Constitutional guardrails are needed to prevent this spiraling too far out of control. Institutions such as freedom of expression & protections afforded to dissident opinion are perhaps the most important of all. At present we are at significant risk of losing those guardrails.
Conspiratorial thinking has increased in recent times. I think that has a lot to do with a decline in the robustness of the said guardrails, which has lead to greater censorship and uniformity of "acceptable" thinking. It feels like a conspiracy to many, but it's not.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lyall Taylor

Lyall Taylor Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LT3000Lyall

14 Jul
To a hammer, everything looks like a nail, and everything except nails is unimportant.

One also suspects that many epidemiologists have come to rather enjoy their elevation in status and relevance during the pandemic, and are reluctant to let it go.
Dentists will tell you you shouldn't ever drink soft drink or eat sugar. In their world, optimizing dental hygiene is the most important aspiration a human being should ever pursue. But humans value lots of other things too.

Epidemiologists are the same.
There is more to life than minimizing risk at any cost, and there is also more to life than maximizing life expectancy at any cost. Life is about taking calculated risks, and quality matters as much as quantity. I would rather have 70 happy years than 80 miserable ones.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
Great thread.

There is an amazing degree of commonality between the political dynamics & ultimate effects of race merchants in places like SA and what is occurring in US - albeit in a diluted form. Greater "race" consciousness invariably ends up harming those it claims to help.
One of the great tragedies of the second half of the 20th C is that while many Asians studied STEM in the US, and brought that knowledge back to Asia to drive economic development, African expat students tended to study the humanities & onboard left wing/identity political ideas.
They took that knowledge back and went into politics, and these imported ideologies amplified already tense ethnic and religious divisions and in many instances contributed to the emergence of decades of civil war, economic turmoil, and in some cases even genocide.
Read 7 tweets
13 Jul
In a world where high risk populations have already been vaccinated, and covid variants appear to be following the typical attenuating evolutionary path (higher transmissibility, lower lethality), the number of “cases” is no longer the relevant metric, only hospitalizations.
Countries that continue to insist on stamping out all "cases" are fighting a losing (and costly) battle. That approach was justified when there were no vaccines; hospitals were at risk of overcrowding; and treatment experience was low. That's no longer the case in many countries.
There is a very common human tendency to fail to change your way of thinking/behaviour as circumstances and evidence changes. As Keynes said, the challenge is often not with the new ideas, but escaping the old. I fear this could be a long and costly problem with covid policy.
Read 5 tweets
3 Jul
I've spent some time researching covid mRNA vaccines of late, trying to parse a lot of the conflicting information we are receiving. My conclusions are as follows. Disclosure - I've been pro vaccine my entire life and never been part of the "anti vax" movement, nor am I atm.
Firstly - efficacy - the mRNA vaccines work. I'm convinced that if everyone in the world took them, the pandemic would very likely be end & covid would struggle to survive, including new variants given the very small level of DNA-level evolution (0.3%) in new variants.
For this reason, and given that everyone has an obvious interest in ending the pandemic, there is therefore very strong institutional support for getting everyone vaccinated as soon as possible.
Read 18 tweets
3 Jul
The left likes to describe the right as being "anti science". But what I have noticed is that in many/most cases, when they say "anti science", what they really mean is "anti authority". (thread).
It doesn't matter how decorated & qualified a scientist is; how well qualified they are to comment; and how compelling the substantive scientific arguments made are, if the conclusions go against the proclamations of a authoritative body, they will be deemed "anti science".
Where the left has a point is that in many cases, the consensus is right, and the fringe views of dissenting thinkers might be consistent with a less rigorous process; dubious incentives; or outright conspiracy mongering. However...
Read 10 tweets
26 May
I'm so tired of reading references to an oil "price war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia. There has never been any such price war. What there actually was was simply a disagreement amongst OPEC+ as to best strategy for dealing with global oversupply (continued).
Saudi Arabia believed OPEC+ should cut production to reduce global oversupply. Russia believed this would merely encourage more shale production and would thus be futile long term, and believed high-cost marginal US shale producers needed to bear the burden of supply adjustment.
This disagreement has been ongoing for several years, and continued early into the pandemic. However, after it became apparent how severe the near term demand impact would be from covid-19, Russia acknowledged a need for output reductions given the extraordinary circumstances.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(