1/n
Interesting take, because I'm sick of people being triggered by arithmetic, cost-benefit analysis, and conflating CFR/IFR.
Facts:
1) ~330 Pediatric deaths over 17 months with a +SCoV2 test through 7/14/21
2) We've had 27M Pediatric infections through 4/14/21
Interesting take, because I'm sick of people being triggered by arithmetic, cost-benefit analysis, and conflating CFR/IFR.
Facts:
1) ~330 Pediatric deaths over 17 months with a +SCoV2 test through 7/14/21
2) We've had 27M Pediatric infections through 4/14/21
2/n
Facts (cont):
3) 65 Pediatric C19 deaths were +SCoV2 with pneumonia. An additional 37 were from MIS-C.
4) ~40% of Pediatric C19 deaths are not due to C19
(35% in US review & 59% in UK review)
5) Makes sense as ~30-40% of Influenza is asymptomatic
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Facts (cont):
3) 65 Pediatric C19 deaths were +SCoV2 with pneumonia. An additional 37 were from MIS-C.
4) ~40% of Pediatric C19 deaths are not due to C19
(35% in US review & 59% in UK review)
5) Makes sense as ~30-40% of Influenza is asymptomatic
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3/n
In the linked thread, @jeremyfaust estimates the Pediatric C19 fatality rate to be 1:10,000.
The upper bound is (330/27m)*0.6 => ~1:140,000
The estimate overshoots by at least 15x.
But that's still not the issue!
It's about value based decision making and risk analysis.
In the linked thread, @jeremyfaust estimates the Pediatric C19 fatality rate to be 1:10,000.
The upper bound is (330/27m)*0.6 => ~1:140,000
The estimate overshoots by at least 15x.
But that's still not the issue!
It's about value based decision making and risk analysis.
4/n
Let's leave alone that no more than a handful, and possibly 0, of these Pediatric deaths were in kids with a severe underlying condition.
There is a collective value of open schools, social interaction, mental health, and all of the economic and developmental benefits.
Let's leave alone that no more than a handful, and possibly 0, of these Pediatric deaths were in kids with a severe underlying condition.
There is a collective value of open schools, social interaction, mental health, and all of the economic and developmental benefits.
5/n
Spreading unwarranted fear about C19 threat to children compromises these benefits.
How high is "too high" to forgo these benefits? How high is high enough to vaccinate your healthy child?
As with adults, the conversation is risk based & personal.
Spreading unwarranted fear about C19 threat to children compromises these benefits.
How high is "too high" to forgo these benefits? How high is high enough to vaccinate your healthy child?
As with adults, the conversation is risk based & personal.
https://twitter.com/contrarian4data/status/1415111276733206532?s=20
The original tweet that I forgot to quote that inspired this short thread:
https://twitter.com/DrRobDavidson/status/1415285965757861898?s=20
without a severe underlying condition *
And thank you @angrybklynmom for pointing out that the CDC estimate for Pediatric C19 admissions is off a model and is ~10x higher than actual HHS data (~30k).
https://twitter.com/angrybklynmom/status/1415396749301239810
*Correction to 4/n*
Let's leave alone that no more than a handful, and possibly 0, of these Pediatric deaths were in kids *without a severe* underlying condition.
…
Sorry 🙃
Let's leave alone that no more than a handful, and possibly 0, of these Pediatric deaths were in kids *without a severe* underlying condition.
…
Sorry 🙃
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