1) Woody Allen famously declared that “90 percent of success in life is just showing up.” That other ten percent must be not showing up to block a legislative assembly from conducting business.
2) Most legislative assemblies, be that the U.S. House and Senate down to town councils require a “quorum” (frequently a majority of all members) to meet. If you can’t meet, you can’t pass bills or laws.
3) This is the exact scenario Texas legislators wanted to block the Texas legislature from meeting and passing its voting bill.

But, what is past is prologue.
4) The decision by the Texas legislators to go on the lam from Austin is reminiscent of Texas legislators paralyzing the state legislature in 2003 by secretly stealing away to Oklahoma to block a quorum and avoid arrest.
5) The Texas statehouse was trying to approve a controversial, Congressional redistricting plan. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) helped develop the redistricting maps which would cost Democrats several House seats.
6) The “cut and run” approach goes back to 1979. Twelve Texas state senators went AWOL for a few days to prevent the state from altering the Texas primary system. Those legislators were known as “The Killer Bees.”

Still, there’s irony in the tactics of Texas Democrats.

To wit:
7) By jilting Austin in favor of Washington, the Texas Democrats exploited a loophole in the legislature’s quorum rules to stall the voting bill.
8) Yet, when the lawmakers arrived on Capitol Hill, they implored Democratic U.S. senators to alter their procedures on the filibuster in order to pass a voting bill they support.
9) Some Democrats are now demanding a special, filibuster “carve-out,” specifically for voting rights legislation. In other words, senators to could filibuster all other types of legislation.
10) But senators would elevate voting rights bills (or perhaps this particular bill) to an elite, parliamentary pantheon, inoculated from the filibuster threat.

It’s unclear exactly how a voting rights carve-out may work.
11) First of all, the Senate isn’t going to change its filibuster “rules.” That’s too complicated. If they pursued it at all, the Senate would likely establish a new precedent for filibusters and voting legislation.
12) The Senate’s witnessed two carve-outs pertaining to the filibuster before:
13) In 2013, then Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) altered filibuster precedent for administration nominees, except the Supreme Court.
14) Current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) topped that by establishing new filibuster provisions for Supreme Court nominees in 2017 when he was Majority Leader.
15) The filibuster “carve out” which remained centered on legislation. In other words, senators of both parties whittled away at the filibuster for everything but good old-fashioned bills.

The pressure is on now for Schumer and Democrats to move.
16) “As I’ve said before, everything is on the table,” said Schumer when asked about the demands of the Texas Democrats.

During an interview with NPR, Vice President Harris suggested she’s working on the filibuster/voting rights issue behind the scenes.
17) “I’m certainly having conversations with folks,” said Harris. “Obviously it’s going to require all of the Democrats in the Senate to agree with that approach.”

Altering Senate filibuster provisions requires 50 Democrats plus Harris, casting a tie-breaking vote.
18) But some Democrats are leery of establishing a new filibuster precedent on voting rights or anything else.

Texas Democrats plan to meet Thursday with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) – who opposes altering the filibuster and the voting rights bill.
19) But so far, little has changed, despite this latest pressure campaign.

It comes down to one thing: the math. And so far, the math doesn’t work to alter the filibuster or advance the voting bill.
20) In 2003, the Texas legislators eventually relented. They decamped from their temporary outposts in Oklahoma and returned to Austin. The Texas legislature finally secured a quorum and passed DeLay’s redistricting plan for the House.
21) The outcome on the TX voting bill be a fait accompli. Or, as they would say it in Texas, this ain’t their first rodeo.

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More from @ChadPergram

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