The idea that the Cuban regime is going to voluntarily transfer power is a fantasy. Regime topplings in Cuba have happened in the following ways:
1) Outside forces (1898, US help)
2) Military / Coup (1933 & 52, Machado & Batista)
3) Mass Uprising (1933 & 1959, Machado & Castro)
1) Outside forces (1898, US help)
2) Military / Coup (1933 & 52, Machado & Batista)
3) Mass Uprising (1933 & 1959, Machado & Castro)
2021 Cuba is very different than 1959 & 1933 Cuba.
The biggest diff is that the Cuban people are unarmed. In 1933, the student groups that led uprisings resulting in Machado's ousting by the military had guns.
Castro had both guns and international $$$ (thx to the NYTimes).
The biggest diff is that the Cuban people are unarmed. In 1933, the student groups that led uprisings resulting in Machado's ousting by the military had guns.
Castro had both guns and international $$$ (thx to the NYTimes).
There is strong support on the island now for toppling the Castro regime. Cubans are tired of living in misery and the only thing they thought (bc of propaganda) they had going for them (health care) has collapsed.
But an unarmed popular uprising faces serious hurdles.
But an unarmed popular uprising faces serious hurdles.
A successful popular uprising to requires guns (which Cubans don't have) or for the military to turn on the top brass.
The latter is very difficult. Why? Bc Cuba's top generals literally own the island. Imagine living in a country where hotels are owned by the DoD. That's Cuba!
The latter is very difficult. Why? Bc Cuba's top generals literally own the island. Imagine living in a country where hotels are owned by the DoD. That's Cuba!
Could enlisted men lead a coup? It's possible. Batista led the Sergeants' Revolt in 1933 as an enlisted man. But Cuba's military is more sophisticated now than it was then. There was also heavy international pressure for Machado to go. Aside from the US, who's doing it now?
That leaves us with outside support. The long-standing US policy toward Cuba for most of post-1959 history has been regime change. We've carried it out mostly via sanctions and direct aid to pro-democracy dissidents.
Yes, short of Marines on the ground, there are many options.
Yes, short of Marines on the ground, there are many options.
We can do more to help the dissidents, especially with overcoming the regime's technology blockade. Enabling VPNs, for instance.
The opposition is unarmed. We can help them. The Castro regime has no moral standing. As I said, their revolution had guns and international $.
The opposition is unarmed. We can help them. The Castro regime has no moral standing. As I said, their revolution had guns and international $.
We could incentivize military men to chart a new course for their country. We've done this before.
We can stop the Cuban government from importing Venezuelan troops to suppress the Cuban people.
We can apply more targeted sanctions.
In short, we have many options.
We can stop the Cuban government from importing Venezuelan troops to suppress the Cuban people.
We can apply more targeted sanctions.
In short, we have many options.
What is not an option and unrealistic is to expect the Cuban people — unarmed and alone — to rid themselves of this tyrannical regime under their current conditions.
Diplomacy and the embargo alone won't cut it.
We can and MUST do much, much more to help them.
Diplomacy and the embargo alone won't cut it.
We can and MUST do much, much more to help them.
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