If General Milley was concerned about a coup, why didn't he go public?
Let's think about what might have happened if he did. 🧵
The media might not have let him. They have been extremely protective of Trump and their imagined image of him.
If he had gotten past the media's pearl-clutching, would he have been believed? Certainly by some part of the population, but Trump-adjacent politicians in particular would rapidly attack him and the media.
Revealing a crime usually disrupts it. But Trump is a contrarian and might have felt empowered to press forward. Milley would have had to be very sure that others in the military would stick with him.
Certainly the media would go wild. It's hard to see which way this would push things.
There would be a variety of reactions in Congress. Some would be eager to stop him (see the Liz Cheney story circulating), some would support Trump (Jim Jordan), but there would be a significant old guard - the folks who still are unsure about the filibuster - on the fence.
Would there be demonstrations? Americans have gotten out of the habit of demonstrations.
Milley was in a difficult spot. He did consult with colleagues, according to the story. It's not clear to me that going public at the time would have given a better outcome.
But I hope the Select Committee will call him as a witness.
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I see nothing so far in the reporters' revelation books about the former administration that we didn't know at some level at the time.
Does that mean it's okay for the reporters to have held back details so they can make money on the books?
Does that mean it's okay for multiple outlets to hype those details and subject us, once more, to the horrors of the Trump administration? Just for clicks?
I would answer the first question "no." A reporter's job is to report the news. If it's news now, it was news then. And perhaps it would have stirred people to do more about the damage Trump was doing.
I would answer the second question "no," with reservations.
@Joshua_Pollack When I feel hopeless about the pandemic never ending, I remind myself that it will.
Globally, people will receive the vaccine or they will get sick. Some of the sick will become immune or will die. Either way, they will be taken out of the susceptible pool. 1/
@Joshua_Pollack The susceptible pool will continue to decrease, so eventually the pandemic will become manageable.
We need to increase production of vaccines so that more are vaccinated more quickly. That will decrease the number of deaths. 2/
@Joshua_Pollack I take the reports of vaccine-resistant variants and waning of immunity with a grain of salt. Much of this looks to me to be wildly overblown. If we have a base of vaccinated people, we have time to deal with it. We're unlikely to have a variant that makes us start from zero. 3/
-->We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike and retaliate in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defenses.
There is a certain value of "rationality" for which this makes sense.
The point of a deterrent nuclear force is to survive an adversary's first strike and strike back. That prevents the adversary from making that first strike, according to deterrence theory. 2/
But I can't help reading it another way.
Why would anyone start a nuclear war?
A first strike intended to disable China's nuclear forces, even before this expansion, would involve hundreds of nuclear weapons. Those hundreds of nuclear weapons would damage the US as well. 3/
Back in 2002, I waited to hear the intelligence analysis on the aluminum tubes. I knew that part of the analysis would be by people at Oak Ridge who knew how to build centrifuges. 1/
Gordon and Miller wrote that the intel community agreed that the aluminum tubes were for centrifuges. I had reservations, but figured that that must include those Oak Ridge folks.
It turned out it didn't. Long story short, it was driven by an obsessive CIA analyst. 2/
Gordon and Miller presented that analysis as God's Own Truth. They never mentioned that DOE - the Oak Ridge people - and State's IRB dissented. That was all the difference in the world. 3/
The predominant reaction has been "Okay, if it's not a directed microwave weapon, then it must be something else." Many suggestions have been offered. 2/
But that reaction contains a number of assumptions.
1) That there is a defined set of symptoms comprising the Havana Syndrome.
2) That those symptoms are being caused by a malign agent.
3) That the agent is using a directed-energy weapon. 3/