Thread by @alexandreafonso

Covid infections in the Netherlands by age and vaccination status: mostly the young, not vaccinated

83% of the people who tested positive in July were not vaccinated; 10% were partially vaccinated (1 dose) and 6% were fully vaccinated. rivm.nl/nieuws/aantal-…

This is the distribution of the whole Dutch population by vaccination status. You can clearly see that non-vaccinated are very overrepresented among the infected (source: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…

With these numbers you can calculate the infection rate by vaccination status. The infection rate among non-vaccinated Dutch people in the month of July is 15x higher than among vaccinated people.

You can also use these numbers for a back-of-the envelope calculation of vaccine efficacy: about 93%. But of course, you'd assume that vaccinated and non-vaccinated people have the same level of exposure to the virus which is clearly not true given the age skew.

That's because young people are both more likely to be more exposed to the virus (go partying) and less likely to be vaccinated because of the priority given to older age groups in vaccination. The treatment and control groups are too different.