Thread by @Fxflow

1/ Why am I going back to covering my face indoors despite the fact that I am fully vaxxed?

The delta variant is starting to really wreak havoc almost everywhere and is sure to get worse.

2/ Yea yea I know the chance of dying from COVID is basically 1%, so even if you get it you have a 99% chance of surviving it. This is a gross oversimplification and the odds are actually a bit worse, but I’ll give you this argument.

3/ I’ll also ignore long COVID which affects about 10-15% of the infected population and is a fate you wouldn’t want to wish on your worst enemy.

So let’s assume we have a 99% chance of survival even if infected. No biggie right?

4/ Ok let’s consider another activity where we also have no control over our fate once we do it - air travel. Sure some people are afraid of flying but most of us are totally fine with it.

5/ That’s because the chances of death from an air crash that is not terror related are so infinitesimally small that we don’t even think about it. About 1 in 11 million. That's not even a basis point of a basis point.

But suppose you flew Air Covid?

6/ Did you know that an average person flies 6.5 per year? If you are a road warrior you certainly fly 10 times per year or more. That means that after a decade of flying on Air Covid you are GUARANTEED to die. That sucks.

7/ That is a much bigger risk than driving a car, slipping in a shower or getting assaulted by a mugger that so many of you worry about.

8/ I spend all my days playing around with risk and I can tell you categorically that as a species we are horrible at assessing our true dangers. So hopefully this slaps of dose of reality into some of you who think this sh-t is no biggie.