Thread by @benwikler

On Tue, President Biden laid it out: “We are facing the most significant test of our democracy since the Civil War.” Watch his speech! But I want to add one note: the GOP’s plan to rig or steal the 2024 presidential election has a math problem.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1415019500085317632

The Republican strategy is simple: amp up the Big Lie—denial that Trump lost—and take away voter freedoms to help the GOP win the White House in 2024 and, if they don’t win, to overturn the results. It’s hideous. But it’s got a hole in it… so far.

For the GOP’s plan to work, they would either have to pass bad laws nationally (which they can’t do under Biden) or in enough states to win the Electoral College. But they can only pass them in states where the GOP has trifecta control of state gov't. There are 23 such states.

All but three of the GOP-trifecta states voted for Trump in 2020. One of them, NH, went for Biden by 7%; it’s hard to vote-suppress a margin that big. The other two are GA and AZ, which both had razor-thin margins under 1%.
ballotpedia.org/State_governme…

To win the Electoral College, the GOP would need to change 2020’s maps by flipping AZ, GA… and another state. The next closest state? Wisconsin. But they can’t pass voter suppression bills here now, because we have a Democratic Governor: Tony Evers.

That’s the math problem. The tipping-point state that would put the Republicans over the top in the Electoral College—the next closest state after AZ & GA—is Wisconsin, and Wisconsin’s not passing anti-democracy laws as long as Evers is in office.

To put it another way: as long as @GovEvers is in office and can stand guard, with his veto pen, against Republican attempts to subvert democracy, the clearest road to Republicans cheating their way to the White House is blocked off.

That’s why, alongside the critical battle to pass federal voting rights legislation, we need an intensive focus on plan B: the state-level infrastructure-building efforts to prevent the GOP from winning enough trifectas to flip the Electoral College.

The background to this argument is a simple question: IF Republicans had total control of Wisconsin, *would* they use it to attack voting rights? The answer to that one is a wince-inducingly clear yes.

At the Wisconsin State Capitol, Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos used taxpayer dollars to hire conspiracy theorist ex-police officers to run an “investigation” into 2020 elections—all to help justify attacks on voting freedoms. More on that here:

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1409908723326369792

Meanwhile, the GOP legislature has already passed a slew of bills suppressing our freedom to vote, particularly targeting voters with disabilities, the elderly, low-income voters, and voters of color.
apnews.com/article/donald…

Rebecca Kleefisch, who was Scott Walker’s Lieutenant Governor, has essentially promised to sign the GOP’s bills to take away voter freedoms (they call them “election integrity” bills) if she’s elected governor.

It’s pretty simple: if the GOP takes Wisconsin’s governorship in 2022, they’ll use the same strategy they’re already using in Georgia and Arizona. And if 2020’s three closest states go red in 2024, or if the GOP can overturn those states’ elections, the GOP gets the White House.

If we reelect @GovEvers, though, the GOP’s dastardly scheme will fall just short. In other words, Wisconsin is, just in 2020, the last line of defense for American democracy.
secure.actblue.com/contribute/pag…

That’s why strong infrastructure is an antidote to the assault on our democracy and voter freedoms. The @WisDems is #AllinForTony, already organizing year-round to re-elect Gov Evers.

Get involved! Here are three ways:

Our in-house Voter Protection team is hosting Voter Protection 101 trainings twice a month, where volunteers (you!) learn the basics of Wisconsin election laws and how to help friends and family make sure their voice is heard at the ballot box. Join!

https://twitter.com/WisDems/status/1410718699837874185

Our Digital department is working day-in & day-out to dominate the online conversation and counter GOP lies with facts and messaging that we know is effective (because we’re constantly testing it and learning from our partners). Follow & amplify @WisDems! zoom.us/meeting/regist…

And if you have a few bucks—chip in! Even better, sign up for a monthly donation. We’ll put every penny to the best use we can. secure.actblue.com/donate/socialw…

"We have the means—we just need the will. The will to save and strengthen our democracy.” -President Joe Biden, 7/13/2021