3. We are already at high levels of infection, this is set to go much higher. Even a small % of a massive number is...a BIG number.
4. Vaccines are MHRA approved for 12+ in the UK. Trials support they are incredibly efficacious and SAFE.
5. Other countries are, successfully.
6. Whether they begin or propagate outbreaks/transmission, schools are a big problem and current bubbles are too big, causing immense disruption, especially since masks were arbitrarily dropped. Ignoring infection is plain stupid, so...let's prevent it!
7. Some have suggested
that infections should be allowed to pass through children, rendering them immune following natural infection. This is utterly irresponsible. You're putting kids in the way of avoidable harm, and resultant immunity is vastly inferior to vaccines.
8. Even the original virus was
a risk to young people, we simply don't know enough about Delta. As posted recently by @GYamey , there are some horrific outbreaks in the US in children.
9. Some have criticised the notion of vaccines in children just serving the old/vulnerable. This is a major facet of vaccine
programmes. They protect at the individual level, which we (may) top up with boosters for vulnerable/older folks. BUT, like masks, vaccines are also ALTRUISTIC. If you render your population less susceptible, R(t) will fall, ideally below 1, outbreaks become self-limiting...
10. This concept is what's referred to as herd/population immunity. This is harder to achieve the more transmissible the virus is, as recently nicely explained by @AdamJKucharski .
11. However, vaccines don't necessarily have to work alone, sensible (NOT lockdowns!) measures
can work alongside to help bring R(t) down. Israel has done this successfully.
12. Of course, we'll never approach this without including under 18s. Adults alone aren't enough.
13. Lastly, as discussed in a letter to @FT and our online event hosted by @allthecitizens the UK
policy represents a danger on a global scale. Unlikely as it is that a variant might evolve that eludes much of the protection afforded by vaccines, mass infection in the face of partial vaccination is exactly the crucible in which it might. Even a step down this road could
cause us major issues, as the need for double vaccines to counter Delta has shown.
14. We already exported alpha, our ludicrous border policy now makes us the Delta distribution hub. We are well equipped to avoid this, and we owe it to everyone to try...altruism is key during a
pandemic.
15. So, I urge the government to listen, to vaccinate teens over summer to ensure a safe return to school...and University...in the autumn. This is your duty of care. Otherwise I fear what might evolve on our shores, as @ArisKatzourakis eloquently describes...
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Strikes me that some may think taking a stand against the mass infection policy and freedom day means that I lack faith in our excellent vaccines and, apparently, am a "lockdown zealot".
I'd like to reassure everyone who knows/follows me or sees this at random that this is untrue
This sort of polarisation of debate is all too common on twitter, and is sadly churned up and propagated by certain cynical characters combined with consecutive failures in pandemic policy. It's in no way black and white, but the main thing is that we ALL want an end to this...
So, in an attempt to collect my thoughts, I've followed advice from @lucy_prodgers and FINALLY written a list...🤪
1. First, we have some AMAZING vaccines, developed by scientists and companies, importantly WITH govt backing, with efficacy and safety proven by trials and real
In the spirit of reconciliation, maybe @MichaelYeadon3@FatEmperor and @ClareCraigPath have a point, this could all be a conspiracy...
Of course, it involves every UK hospital trust falsifying admissions, bed occupancy, imposing OTT infection control, delaying other provision,
sending a huge swathe of an already massively under-strength workforce home for 10 days on Netflix, oh, and covering up a massive number of murders committed against NHS staff as COVID related, as well as forcing many others to spend endless hours receiving counselling...
Oh, but
we also can't forget the thousands of doctors pairing up to fake the cause of death on official certication to add more fear into the mix. They're also guilty of deliberately preventing families seeing dying loved ones, whilst also taking time to call personally and console their
Upsetting to see so many half-truths, dismissive crap and bizarre media conspiracies floating around...sorry, have to get this off my chest.
1. No, of course there aren't as many infections as in spring. We had a lockdown, albeit truncated, and most people still distance...
2. Yes, there are fewer hospital cases and fatalities. This is proportionate to infections, plus more younger people infected. Care homes are better protected (finally) and most shielders did NOT pause, I suspect.
3. Cases are increasing, as is R0, but regional variation and
lower numbers in parts of UK keep it around 1 (or slightly higher in some parts). R0 is only 3 when you don't intervene!
4. No, the virus is not getting "weaker". It is infecting younger, healthier people better able to cope.
5. No, tests are not wildly inaccurate, they don't