A pretty interesting article about Lavrov's recent adventures in Central Asia. kommersant.ru/doc/4907714?fb…. Highlights:
1) Lavrov criticises the US for quitting Afghanistan. 🤯
2) However, he doesn't want the US to have any bases / training centres in Central Asia.
3) But Putin apparently proposed that the US make use of Russian bases to track the situation in Afghanistan. 🤯
4) US refusal is construed to mean that the real purpose of US interest in Central Asia is to contain Russia, China and Iran.
5) Meanwhile, Lavrov spoke up against the US plan of allowing tens of thousands of pro-government Afghan refugees to settle in Central Asia, which, he indicated, could radicalise these countries.
I don't know if any of this actually adds up to much of a Russian 'plan' to do something about the situation in Afghanistan. In a sense, Russia is the one that stands to lose the most from the US departure from the region but it doesn't sound like Moscow has a viable strategy.

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More from @DrRadchenko

16 Jul
Reading Archie Brown's The Human Factor, which, though it is highly complimentary towards Gorbachev (to the point of sometimes being uncritically so), contains fierce criticism of Yeltsin. amazon.co.uk/Human-Factor-G…. 👇🏿
"His [Yeltsin's] prime aim," writes Brown, "was to remove Gorbachev from power and to take his place in the Kremlin. If that could have been done while preserving Soviet statehood, Yeltsin would have been more than happy to preside over the larger state."
"If his surest path to power involved the break-up of the union, it was one he was ready to follow." Brown quotes from the unpublished diary of former UK Ambassador Rodric Braithwaite, who wrote of Yeltsin in Sept 1990 that Yeltsin had "very little interest in policy matters."
Read 6 tweets
8 Jul
Archie Brown here discussing the reasons for the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in his new book. As my comments here indicate, I don't agree with this take.
First of all, the Soviets realised almost as soon as they invaded that it was a huge mistake. It was not like they thought it was going great and then suddenly discovered in 1985 that it was a blunder.
In fact, as Brezhnev's conversations with Karmal make clear, he hoped (much as Gorby would with Karmal and then Najibullah) that the Afghans would fight the war on their own, and not rely on Soviet support.
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul
@DmitriTrenin has on op-ed on Russia's new national security strategy in Kommersant: kommersant.ru/doc/4888683?fb…. Argues that historically Russia collapsed not because it was externally threatened but because the political elites lost the people's trust.
In other words, the key threat to Russia's national security is actually its own (low quality) political elite. Hard to disagree!
Trenin calls for a "meritocratic rotation" of the ruling elites to avoid this scenario. The problem is that it is difficult to have a meritocratic rotation in the absence of a democratic rotation. And you can't have a democratic rotation in the absence of democratic institutions.
Read 5 tweets
30 Jun
A thread about "Soviet democracy." Many people do not realise that the Soviet Union had "elections." Why, Stalin himself was "elected" to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. I was just reading today his "campaign speech," dated February 9, 1946 - it's a well-known speech. Image
It's well-known because it is seen as marking a turning point towards Cold War confrontation. In the speech Stalin rehabilitated the idea that capitalism inevitably leads to war, and advertised the might of the Red Army. It's a must-mention of any serious history of the Cold War.
But this thread is about something else. I learned while looking at the documents that Stalin personally wrote every word of this speech. The archives contain his hand-written original. What's funny is that at one point Stalin praises the Red Army for defeating Germany.
Read 6 tweets
28 Jun
One benefit of reading archival documents non-stop is you find stuff in places you did not expect. Consider the following document about Gao Gang (1905-1954), one of the most interesting characters in the CCP leadership in the late 1940s - early 1950s. 👇🏿
Here, Gao Gang recounts how he tried to deliver a special present "from the people of Manchuria" for Stalin's 70th birthday - a large cloth with Stalin's image - but how he was thwarted in his effort by the central Chinese government.
In the document, Gao Gang trashes other Communist Party leaders incl. Li Fuchun & Liu Shaoqi. But he asks the Soviet diplomat (who reported his words to Moscow) to smuggle the present to the Soviet Union anyway - only without letting Beijing know or "his head would be cut off". Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Jun
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov publishes an extended article, which contains passages bordering on moronic: kommersant.ru/doc/4877702?fb….
For example, in one place he claims that Russia has greater regard for law because the Russian word for law (pravo) has the same root as the Russian word for rules (pravila), whereas in "Western" languages, rule and law have different roots. I kid you not.
The gist of the article, though, is that the West is trying to impose its own rules on Russia, whereas there exist these "instruments of international law, which everyone has signed". At one point, he complains about the UN Charter and the OSCE not being mentioned often enough. Image
Read 6 tweets

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