Thread by @franciscodeasis

[Thread] Who is the first known patient?
There is a lot of confusion, so let's review all possible patients according published onset dates [of symptoms] up to 15-Dec-19.

Notation
Patients are anonymized, so they are identified as <AgeSex> (e.g. 49F is a 49-year-old female). In case there are many patients with same age & sex, suffixes are used (e.g. 65M1, 65M2, ...).
U = Unknown.
Problem: people can have birthday during illness

XX Su (61F), XX Wang (62M) & XX X (UU) onset 14, 21 & c. 30-Nov-19.
Info unnoticingly leaked in Health Times and uncovered by DRASTIC and @ianbirrell

https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1398765942029619201

A person (55U) onset 17-Nov-19, with a total of four men and five women aged between 39 and 79 in Nov-19. Nothing else has been heard of these cases
scmp.com/news/china/soc…

Connor Reed (25M) onset 25-Nov-19.
Had a diary with many details. Confirmation of having had the virus on 15-Jan-2020.
Died in Oct-20 and the investigation has not concluded yet.
Btw, where is his diary? (useful to know where he was the week before onset)
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…

XX Zhao (85F) [not so clear] onset 26-Nov-19.
She had a bad condition so she was admitted to hospital. Official death #18 on 21-Jan-20 according to Red Dawn (FOIA ht @CharlesRixey).
Probably first known death due to nosocomial COVID19 infection. RIP

XX X (62M & possibly not Wang-62M; WIV01) onset initially considered 01-Dec-19 by Huang et al. (2020) or 12-Dec-19 by Zhou et al. (2020), but now considered 26-Dec-19.
(more details in embedded thread)

https://twitter.com/franciscodeasis/status/1415828915738890244

XX Chen (41M1, S01, Wuchang accountant) onset now officially 08-Dec-19 but real onset 16-Dec-19.
Lineage B. Convenient 1st case to divert attention of WHO experts.
Probably a dead end with unknown connection with wet market cluster (e.g. public transport)

https://twitter.com/franciscodeasis/status/1397227238764990469

Guixian Wei (57F1, seafood merchant in wet market) onset 10-Dec-19. Went to small private clinic, Union & Tongji.
(This WSJ article is a must read; AFAIK, it includes the first graphical COVID proof)
wsj.com/articles/how-i…

XX Yin (48F) onset 10-Dec-19. Tongji & Jinyintan.
I guess the real onset was later (admission was on 27-Dec-19).
Official death #7 on 20-Jan-20. RIP
Probably same 48F as in Cluster 3 of Li et al. (2020) with onset 15-Dec-19; exposure to 49M (see next)

XX X (49M, vendor wet market) onset 12-Dec-19. Jinyintan.
Cluster 3 index case of Li et al. (2020)
Note: they used reversed notation in Fig. 3 (i.e. 49M = M49)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

XX X (44M, transportation staff wet market, apparently different from S03 (WH01) in China-WHO report, also a 44M) onset c. 12-Dec-19. Union.
Not official case, but very clear. Probably first known death. RIP
AFAIK, nobody is studying this key case! Shame!
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

XX X (65M1, S02) onset 15-Dec-19 (13-Dec-19 according China-WHO report). Central, Tongji, Jinyintan.
First known to be sequenced (26-Dec-19), but not first published.
Caixin reported he died, so he could be XX Song (also a 65M) who died on 24-Jan-20, official death #35 (RIP).

XX X (UU) onset 15-Dec-19.
First case outside Wuhan, in Yichang. We do not know anything. Shame!

https://twitter.com/franciscodeasis/status/1416061595923406856

For the record:
First official death:
XX Zeng (61M, S05, worker or purchaser wet market) onset 20-Dec-19. Puren & Jinyintan.
Died on 09-Jan-20. RIP