1/7 Since I publicly pitched this last year, I would like to disclose that I just sold $ISRG. From ~$550 to ~$950, it was a decent ride, but mostly luck tbh.

2/7 ISRG remains an excellent biz, but I think market is still underestimating the potential impact of delta on recovery path for a company like ISRG.
3/7 I admit I am a little concerned about delta variant. However, it’s always hard to not only predict how the fundamentals will be affected but also how the market will react even if fundamentals are indeed impacted.
4/7 Even though I am not a believer of market timing, I want to be in a state of mind where I can maintain my equanimity to market direction. So I was looking for a company to sell in my portfolio to raise a little cash and go back to my indifference mode to market direction.
5/7 I now have ~10% cash which is the highest in the last 12 months. No plan to raise cash any further.
6/7 As ISRG trades at ~20x revenue, a slowing topline for potentially two consecutive years (and more?) is concerning to me.

Although stock went up by ~70% in the meantime, fundamentals remain largely the same or slightly worse because of potentially extended recovery timeline.
7/7 I will remain a curious observer of ISRG and see if it makes sense to me to own this excellent biz again.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

15 Jul
1/ Thread: You and Your Research

In 1986, Richard Hamming, a famous mathematician, gave a speech titled “You and Your Research”.

@RishiGosalia insisted I read the speech, so I did. It is one of the few things I would like to re-read many times in future.

Leaving some notes.
2/ “shouldn't you say to yourself,, “Yes, I would like to do something significant”

Success is not a mere byproduct of luck although it does play a role. Many successful scientists had many great work, not just one-off work. Think Einstein, Shannon etc.
3/ Newton said, ``If others would think as hard as I did, then they would get similar results.''

“Once you get your courage up and believe that you can do important problems, then you can. If you think you can't, almost surely you are not going to.”
Read 19 tweets
11 Jul
1/ Thread: The value of a newsletter

For a long time, I thought the value proposition of a newsletter is great. Only recently I have understood my framework for assigning value to a newsletter was perhaps flawed.
2/ My initial framework was based on my own opportunity cost. I thought since the opportunity cost is $200-300k but I am willing to sell my intellectual capital for $100/year, that must be a great deal for subscribers.
3/ That thesis isn’t entirely wrong at first glance since I did end up getting 1k subscribers in less than a year. But this thesis is very much “author-centric” view.

A more “subscriber-centric” view is likely to reveal the value proposition (or lack thereof) better.
Read 12 tweets
28 Jun
1/8 quick thoughts on $ETSY's acquisition of Elo7

Etsy just announced acquisition of Elo7, marketplace for handmade items based in Brazil, for $217 mn cash.

Elo7, founded in '08, is also known as Etsy of Brazil and was backed by Accel ('11), Insight Venture Partners ('12).
2/8 56k active sellers, 1.9 mn active buyers.

My first impression is liquidity of the marketplace is still not quite there yet.

Etsy didn't disclose GMV/revenue of Elo7. Quick google search shows $4 mn revenue (not sure of veracity). Assuming $50 mn GMV, Etsy paid >4x GMS.
3/8 As per an IFC study, 85% buyers and 80% sellers are women on Elo7.

Interestingly, ~75% of the women in the IFC study responded they became seller on Elo7 after becoming a mother.
Read 10 tweets
25 Jun
1/ Thread: The impact of intangibles on base rates

@mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan published a new piece couple of days ago. As an ardent student of Mauboussin's work, I am leaving my notes here.
2/ There are two ways to forecast the future.

a) The Inside View: You study the company of interest, understand the economics, and project operating metrics based on the narrative.

b) The Outside View: You think statistically, find reference class of the company of interest...
3/ ... and evaluate what happened to that reference class. You get your base rates from the reference class which influences your forecasted numbers.
Read 12 tweets
20 Jun
1/9 Thread: No Slam Dunk in Investing

I was recently speaking with someone and we both somewhat lamented how Buffett did not bet big on Google.

Google IPOed in 2004; it may not be clear then that they would win search. But surely by 2014, Buffett should have known it, right?
2/9 Following our conversation, we both explored a bit whether it really was that obvious that Google was an easy buy in 2014 when it was trading at ~$500.

Let me share two quotes.
3/9 "The growth rate in Internet penetration is set to peak in 2016. Were Google’s revenue and profit continues to track Internet penetration, then those metrics would peak as well"
Read 9 tweets
9 Jun
1/5 Thread: Income inequality gimmick

ProPublica's "leak" on wealthy individuals' taxes reminded me of some of the studies related income inequality I read a few years ago.

A short thread.
2/5 University of Michigan did a study from 1975 to 1991 following a group of individuals who initially started in the bottom 20%.

95% of these people were found not to be in the bottom 20% in 1991. 29% actually reached the top 20%.

Link: (page 8) scribd.com/document/88651…
3/5 IRS later did a similar study from 1996 to 2005, and found people who started in the bottom 20% in 1996 saw their income increase by 91% over the decade and people who started at the top 1% actually saw their income fall by 26%.
Read 5 tweets

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