⚠️usual weekend/ Monday processing lag.
🦠🦠🦠 39,950 cases BUT
👀 under the bonnet.
Cases by SWAB date now at 58,606 for last Thursday (See LHS) & they are still adding cases to last Tuesday(compare RHS - yesterday screenshot) & LHS (today)
This is a sign that there are processing capacity issues and, indeed yesterday processed tens of thousands fewer ways than the previous few days.
It must feel unrelenting pressure in the labs.
So is this a sign of trouble at mill.
Tried both Gov and NHS route. Both the same
I think it quite likely that the 60k cases I feared by “Freedom day” has already been breached. We will only know as we move through the week and look backwards.
Meanwhile cases 🦠 are getting much hotter in NI.
Doubled (swab date) in a week
Tripled by report date.
60 day deaths (23). 28 day deaths (19). ⬆️ 48% on a rolling 7 day average and ⬆️ 216% on the same day last week.
💉 a puny 147k doses administered.
🏥 headline figures quite laggy
No admissions data for England, Wales or Scotland yesterday (indeed for Scotland since 13-7-21)
But looking at the most recent data for each country
IN hospital 🛌 likely around 8465 now (close to 10-3-21 - 8436)
Ventilator 🛌 likely⬆️ 600
Another sign there’s lab processing capacity issues.
It’s only a couple of months since they closed down the lab
As for estimating where we might be in a week or so re 🏥 admissions. They have been running at 2.4% of cases.
2.4% of 60k cases = 1440. Even assuming continuing vaccination knocks it back a bit, last Thursday infections likely to translate into say 1200-1300 admissions
The ONS suggests the median point for admissions is 9 days from symptoms.
Those tested on Thursday likely symptomatic Wed (depending on test mode)
So the admissions likely start coming in from Friday and over the next few days.
YOU are the one who is being unreasonable when you point at leaders around the world who have done better - not marginally - but by oceans.
“Oh! Come on mate! Look! “ he says “Everyone else is willing to lay down grandma’s, grandad’s and mother’s lives to make my life easier”
“Oh, and be cautious, do things gradually (unlike us!), because if you do enjoy the 'freedoms' we've been harping on about, we'll definitely blame you if you do what we're telling you to, & then need to lockdown again!
Remember, it's all in your hands now (not ours!) Good luck!”
He described the U.K. approach as Incoherent (like Johnson and his ministers and BB CRG looms) and also said that NZ would not consider following suit.
Professor Dingbat, on the other hand, who tried to put herd immunity by infection in a sweet-as-sugar frilly dress with 'well we are all going to die at some point' (OK GRANDMA! Is now good for you?), is suggesting on @BBCNewsnight that #LongCovid is 'all in the mind'
Unvaxxed patients: some sheepish, some remain defiant as they are wheeled off to ICU and their families deny that Covid itself exists even as their relative is placed on a ventilator. theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
It’s not just that Covid hospitalisations are increasing. It is coinciding with a resurgence of RSV (which can be serious - even deadly- in children) and flu and parainfluenza that has been suppressed due to NPIs for Covid.
They struggle to find space to keep them separate.
Consultants now off sick with stress and still more being treated for mental illness. The anxiety, and moral injury must be creating anguish.
Meanwhile, however, our junior doctors are so close to the edge that minor events regularly bring them to tears.
Instead of reducing the conditions where people can infect as many people today we have INCREASED those conditions.
And some of those infected people from Wembley ⚽️ finals are likely not yet showing in cases due to a few days to become symptomatic & for test processing
SOME of those infected people will not be tested at all, either because they are symptomatic or pauci symptomatic - or because they don’t want to know.
Then there are the people onward infected who will only be positive this week.