I was on CNBC earlier today talking about plunging bond yields.


I'm in the camp that says inflation is not transitory. I still believe this is correct.

But, as the bottom panel suggests, this is not what the markets are worried about. Note that yields (orange) and the relative performance of reopening stocks (green) are nearly the same

So, the market is focused on growth and not inflation. On this front, it is not good. The reopening stocks are having their worst stretch since the Pfizer vaccine announcement last November.

Why now? As the next two charts show (same chart, different time periods), case counts are doubling roughly every 7-days.

So while the level of cases is still low, give it two or three weeks.

What is the market worried about?

The same President that accused Facebook of "killing people" for not censoring anti-vax posts is going to conclude this rise in cases means some version of "spring 2020 lockdowns" is necessary again.


What makes Biden say ...

"Today cases went over 200,000/day because of the Delta variant. Nevertheless, I call on all Americans to fill the offices, stadiums, schools, and commuter trains."

Do you really think he uses hospitalizations and death rates to dismiss?


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More from @biancoresearch

12 Jun
From the story ...

"About a third of workers in the U.S. hold jobs that economists say could be done remotely."
I agree and understanding the ramifications of this change is going to redefine the economy over the next several years.


The tip of this iceberg is the enormous impact it will have on traffic. no mre rush hour?

Then redefining the meaning of office is next. What is its purpose? Why do we have them?

The jobs that can be done at home, which again are one-third of the workforce, a nothing but glorified video games. My job is this and most of your jobs are as well.

We sit at computer screens and manipulate things. Essentially we are playing a video game.

Read 6 tweets
4 Jun
In the meantime, see this FT article


The pandemic has caused spending patterns have changed more than anytime in history.

So the inflation measures now overweight stuff we don't buy as much, like subway passes, restaurants and business attire, which are falling in price. and underweight things we spend a lot more on, like groceries, bicycles, and used cars, which are rising in price.

As noted in the FT, Harvard professor Alberto Cavallo took a stab at this and found that US inflation may have been underestimated by 5.5% over the course of 2020.

To repeat, inflation last year was near 7% according to his studies. And it is probably higher this year.

Read 4 tweets
2 Jun
Thread about stablecoins/Tether(USDT) to pushback on the FUD about USDT.

Something bigger is happening, the next reserve currency!


@nic__carter @BanklessHQ @TrustlessState @RyanSAdams @CamiRusso @LynAldenContact @TheStalwart @DappUniversity @VitalikButerin
Bottom line, Tether is never redeemed, so the Trust is more or less irrelevant.
Stablecoins are a trading pairs and transfer tokens in wallets. They are not a money market funds like Tim Massad opined.

Staking pools are like money markets.


And this is what makes stablecoins so powerful, and worrisome to regulators/TradFi. They are backed by the same thing as the $$$, full faith and credit...of the crypto universe!

USDT's problem is its centralized. A decentralized stablecoin (DAI, LUSD) has more potential.

Read 16 tweets
1 Jun
Yesterday I noted, per this story, that crypto regulation is coming. But reading this story, it is apparent that regulators are not sure how to do it.


@edwardnh @AshBennington @RaoulGMI @BanklessHQ @RyanSAdams @TrustlessState @CamiRusso @DefiantNews
But what kind of regulation, what purpose?

@DavidBeckworth interviewed Fomer BoC/BoE head Mark Carney for his podcast Macro Musing

Carney gave the worst possible answer, to ensure central bankers remain relevant.


From the transcript (my highlight)

My worst fear, regulators are afraid they will be irrelevant and will set out to destroy innovation and improvement to keep themselves relevant, all while claiming they are "protecting the public."

Remember this is a warning:
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help"

Read 6 tweets
30 May
The last three months of core PCE, the Fed's favorite metric, is growing at nearly 5%, a 30-year high.

This is being dismissed as part of the reopening process. Careful with this logic.

Friday the UMich released its latest Consumer confidence survey, which also asks about inflation.

The outlook over the next 5-10 yrs is rising and at a decade high.

The 1yr outlook spiked to a 13yr high … highest since $145 crude.

Consumers believe it is coming

But this is 2021, and inflation is measured not by prices, or expectations of what one will pay. It is what the bond market thinks.

So, you cannot have an inflation problem if bond yields are not shooting higher.

I think this is backward logic

Read 6 tweets
23 May
I have never promoted a coin in public. I have said the entire space will be transformational for the financial industry. I still believe that.

Pumping coins makes everyone look away from the changes that are coming. That is what matters to me.

Not unlike the late 1999 when many only saw tech stocks as objects of speculation and missed the bigger picture.

I remember many laughing off e-commerce as a plausible idea because pets.com when bust? How does that look now?

So, I avoid talking coins.

I've also said never invest more than you can lose, and have recommended starting with $200 or so and consider it an "education fee."

Open an account and buy a coin. Move it to a wallet and stake, it.

If you do that, you will understand why everything is going to change.

Read 5 tweets

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