Thread by @HugoGye

I've written up some thoughts for today's @theipaper on how the vaccine rollout - which is now almost our only line of defence against covid - has gone over the past seven months.
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1417065158711599108

@theipaper People sometimes say that the UK started well but squandered its lead. This isn't really true: UK has administered more doses per head of population than any comparable country, will be overtaken by Canada but perhaps no others.

@theipaper I was sceptical of the Hancock mantra that 'supply is the rate-limiting factor' but this turned out to be definitely true (at least until recent weeks). Look at the way it fluctuated - can only be explained by changes in supply.

@theipaper And our supplies have been robust, particularly at the beginning. Manufacturing problems meant the rollout couldn't start with the big bang that was hoped for but we still got off the ground quicker than EU and US, though US supplies eventually overtook ours. Kudos Bingham.

@theipaper *BUT* to my mind the biggest problem with the vaccination programme has been the lack of transparency, particularly around supply, which ended up creating elevated expectations. Ministers should have been clear that rates of 600k+ doses a day would never be sustained.

@theipaper It is also clear that the decision to limit the use of Ox/AZ jab - effectively banning under-40s from getting it, which went beyond JCVI advice - slowed down the rollout in its final weeks. Sticking to that ruling even as cases rose showed a disappointing lack of flexibility.

One of the factors underlying the UK's vaccines success has been amazingly high uptake. The anti-vaxx movement has been the dog that hasn't barked in this country. Demand has been at or very close to 90% in all age groups above 40, and 95+% in over-55s.

That said, there's one remaining challenge for this phase of the rollout. Polls suggest 90% of young people are willing to be jabbed, but only around two thirds have had a dose so far. Ministers are aware of the problem: if they can solve it we'll go out with a bang not a whimper