Thread by @Trinhnomics

Okay, I think there is a silver lining playbook for this delta variant🤗. Been thinking about it for the past two days, especially for Asia.

What do we know? a) Virus mutates & the delta variant is rather infectious but there is something effective at reducing infection & hospitalization - vaccines esp Pfizer & Moderna; b) Asia isn't fully vaccinated & virus is causing countries to use the old playbook - restrictions.

In Asia we got India getting that massive wave that resulted in deaths/hospitalizations/higher poverty & something countries want to avoid through lockdowns - fresh ones are happening in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Thailand etc. Not good for growth & sustainability.

That we know. We also know this: this time, we have something else beyond just the old playbook for lockdown/suppression: the vaccines, esp a certain kind of vaccines. So what? I think Singapore may be an answer on whether we can exit out of this Covid lockdown vicious cycle.

Singapore is an odd example for Asia to take as it is a small city state that is rather organized and rich. But it is also a good example because it faces the same issue that everyone shares, esp ASEAN economies: CANNOT AFFORD TO LOCK DOWN FOREVER given its openness. So?

Singapore has a typical Asia problem despite being small/an island/organized/rich - the Delta Variant manages to creep into it & occasionally has "waves" that results in lockdowns etc. It does have a lot of savings to do generous handouts but can't sustain lockdowns given its eco

Singapore decided to LIVE W/ COVID. Yes, as in moving from pandemic to endemic, as in getting to life w/ Covid in a way that doesn't destroy the public health system & open up. Strange as u know that it just imposed restrictions just now on the spike of cases. But hear me out.

Of course imposed lockdowns b/c Singapore doesn't want its health system to be overwhelmed as it doesn't have enough of its citizens vaccinated. The math is hard b/c 10% of population is under 12 & herd immunity requires like 80% so gonna be hard. But if Singapore can do it then.

So far Singapore vaccinated 47% of the population (using mostly pfizer/moderna) & 73% have had first shots. It aims to achieve a high level of vaccination by 9th August - its national day.

So what?

If the current lockdowns (or circuit breaker as they call it there) buy time for Singapore to achieve 2/3 fully vaccinated by August 9th &enough for it to "open up" and live w/ the virus, then we can have the light at the end of the tunnel.

straitstimes.com/singapore/heal…

But if Singapore cannot do it, then we, well, well, well...Why? Because Singapore is arguably the most organized, small & nimble & rich enough, enough to do it. And we'll find out soon really whether Singapore "circuit breaker" is really the beginning of normalization or dejavu.

This is a great infographic by the @straits_times (although slightly dated as more fresh restrictions are rolled out in Asia) but shows u the juxtaposition of the US, Europe and Southeast Asia as well as Australia.

If Singapore succeeds, this should look differently by end 2021

And the Singapore approach (it does have a roadmap) is ultimately adopted by laggards of Asia (other Southeast Asian economies that relied on ZERO COVID strategy that doesn't work) then we may have more countries, pushed by the delta variant, moving towards endemic vs pandemic.

So either we are at the beginning of the end of the pandemic to go into endemic or something rather bad. The suffering that is happening by the poor, the fragile middle class & especially those in EM w/o safety nets is mounting while the world is awash w/ liquidity for the haves.

That imbalance is building up for a climax & I'd like to believe that we're getting closer to some reprieve. Perhaps Singapore can show us the way or not. I wish it success because I think it's my silver lining playbook. Good night!

Sincerely,

@Trinhnomics 🤗