MLQ3 makes much of the old political party conventions to select national candidates. Truth is these were just for show as it was essentially imposed upon by the Americans during the Commonwealth period. But that was also a period of monolithic rule as the…
party in power was controlled by his adoptive grandfather El Mestizo, Manuel Quezon. It was MacArthur who ordered Manuel Roxas to put up the Liberal Party. Collaboration with the Japanese was the major issue then and post-independence politics dictated that the veritable pound of
flesh be extracted. Not that Roxas was clean himself. It was just that he was fortunate enough to obtain MacArthur's anointment. Roxas went on to defeat Sergio Osmeña in the 1946 election. The Americans then had their puppet government in place. The 1935 Constitution was even
hastily amended to give the Americans parity rights for them to be able to control their business interests in the country. The convention system eventually died and what has been taking place post-Marcos is effectively a crowning but without the guarantee of victory. It was only
Cory's anointed who won under a cloud of electoral fraud by the thinnest of pluralities. Duterte broke that mold in 2016 by running on his own terms. Proof of this is the announcement last night of the Lacson-Sotto camp that they are running for President and Vice-President. If
Danding Cojuangco were still alive this would never happen without his explicit approval. But with the passing of the Boss last year and the inability or lack of interest of Ramon Ang to continue the role of Danding, it was inevitable that Tito Sotto would take the reigns of the
party as its most senior member. The NPC is the oldest and longest-surviving post-Marcos political party in the country which still has a loyal membership. Political parties have evolved to becoming representative not only of political but economic interest as well. Ramon Ang's
pockets aren't as deep as Danding's which is another reason why he didn't claim the titular leadership of the NPC. The National Unity Party of Ricky Razon is better financed and they have announced they will stick with the administration. Lacson-Sotto is in the best position to
challenge the administration to provide the public with a viable alternative in the 2022 polls. Robredo and Isko are still wet-behind-the-ears politicians who don't really possess a track record of experience, most of all gravitas, to lead the country. In Lacson-Sotto, the public
has two battle-seasoned veterans of the legislative and executive branches who understands how the system works and what it will take to get things done. It is also a welcome development because Lacson focuses more on policy debates than popularity. He disdains appealing to the
blaser instincts of the masses unlike other candidates who sing and dance their way to electoral victory without knowing what to do after they've won. Now the public awaits their platform of government which they are sure to present when they make their formal announcement on
August 4. What we are witnessing here is the birth of a new opposition and the death of the old one which simply couldn't get anything right after they lost in 2016 and 2019. This development also puts the final nail in the coffin of the convenor group that MLQ3 is fond of.
Lacson was wise to reject the overture of 1Sambayan. He pointed out in his letter to Carpio the disconnect given he was a principal author of the Anti-Terror Bill in the Senate and also supported the passage of the law enacting the National Identification System which are
complementary. If the 2022 election becomes a two-party race then it will be to the public's benefit. The 2022 election is crucial to our survival because of the pandemic environment. There has to be disruption in government in order to address the disruption caused by the
pandemic in our government and society.

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More from @marortoll

20 Jul
I keep wondering why everything that is wrong with this country is blamed on Marcos and Duterte and not the political bloc which was in power for thirty years. Marcos was in power for twenty-one. Duterte six. That's a total of twenty-seven. You don't need…
to have a PhD in any discipline to analyze what went wrong with the Philippine economy. You just need to read history and analyze the political structure. The Spanish and American periods saw the Philippines producing coconut oil, abaca and sugar. These were the main exports.
Manila then was the Pearl of the Orient. A trading outpost similar to Hong Kong with a large expatriate community of Europeans and Americans. It was a plantation-style economy which was nothing but a modern version of fief and serf in medieval Europe. The monarchy was the
Read 16 tweets
20 Jul
It was inevitable that Javad comes up with this comparison given the most recent surveys having the Manila Mayor in the number two slot after the Davao City Mayor. Javad's comparison fails because Isko is just about to complete his first term while…
Daughterte has been in office as Vice-Mayor or Mayor since 2007. Isko was a Councilor or Vice-Mayor then. It is but natural to compare the two. Daughterte is a lawyer. Isko managed to complete his education when he transitioned to politics from showbiz. As Javad notes, Isko tends
to be performative while Sara is mostly stoic. She has charm and charisma but is not in the news cycle 24/7 or 25/8, as Isko is on social media. If you believe the Chief Political Analyst that is Antonio Contreras, Isko's voter base trumps Daughterte. But that is as per their
Read 16 tweets
19 Jul
Afghanistan and the Delta variant. The US quietly pulled out of Afghanistan last week. It was actually more sneaking out as the last Americans pulled out under the cover of darkness. The Americans left behind the Afghans who supported their war against the…
Taliban, which was also their own creation at the time it was the USSR ehich invaded that country. The Afghans have again proven their mettle against a superpower. They have now defeated the US and Russia one after the other. So much for the fight against terrorism which was the
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Read 14 tweets
19 Jul
Constantly amazed by his logic. A political scientist with a PhD who reasons as he does should be stripped of his doctoral degree. Surveys are based on science because the discipline of statistics is involved. As such, there is the survey design made by…
a statistician or a data analyst. It has to be totally random in order for the results not to be skewed. If skewed then the purpose of the survey is defeated. Not all surveys are correct. Think of Hillary Clinton's pollsters who had her leading by 10 points in the 2016 election.
Election night had Hillary losing to Donald Trump in what was considered a major upset. Last night, I read an article about a statement made by the national group of pollsters in the US saying they made a mistake in their surveys for Congressional races. This is why the
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19 Jul
It's not really the early bird which catches the worm aphorism which allies in the face of the Lacson-Sotto tandem but more of a calculated risk in taking on the daunting challenge of running for the two highest posts in the land. In 2015, the news cycle…
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situation is different today not only because of the pandemic but also due to the changed political landscape. Duterte broke the political template with the strategy he employed in 2015. It was political striptease at its best. When he finally decided to run, he seized control of
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18 Jul
Banayo thinks that an amendment of the Constitution solve the the problem of political turncoats. I don't agree. We've seen what happened with the Nacionalista and Liberal parties in the past and those which were organized for the 1992 election. Only NPC…
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