$BTC Where Are We In the Cycle?📚

🔹Comparing The Cycles.
🔹Longer Cycles, Diminished Returns?
🔹Why I think the Cycle is not over.


So where in the cycle are we? Did we start a new year-long bear market at $65K or are we simply in the same bull cycle on high timeframe but with an extended down move?

Disclaimer: No financial advice, it's all just my opinion.

To start off: I personally do think the current cycle is not done yet and that we will see us move to new highs later this year which we'll likely hit around Q1 2022 if I had to guess.

It's important to note this bias of mine before we move further.

The cycle comparisons I make in this thread, are based on a very small sample size and thus, are not super reliable (as with anything else, especially TA related). So keep that in mind.

We're just speculating here :)

🔹Comparing The Cycles

In my opinion, we can divide the past 4 cycles up in 2 different kind of cycles.

Cycle 1 and 3, which are highlighted in green, are cycles where we generally see short smaller corrections and mostly just grind up.

Cycle 2 and 4, which are highlighted in yellow, are in my eyes very similar. Cycle 4 being the cycle we're in right now.

What's different from the yellow cycles compared to the green ones is the fact that they have a big peak towards the later half of the cycle.

Then start a few month "bear market" so to say, where we do see a huge correction, after which price starts to recover and sets a new high about 4-5 months later.

After that it continues for a while, until it sets the cycle high and really starts the bigger bear market.

Now if I had to guess, we're currently in that short bear period where we are seeing re-accumulation and try to collect some fuel for the last, hard push later this year.

It will be interesting to see if this cycle does indeed make for a "double-peak" cycle.

Cycle 2:

🔹-81% move down.
🔹Found a bottom after 84 days.
🔹Moved +1700% from there in 147 days.

Cycle 4 (so far):

🔹-55% move down.
🔹(Potential) bottom after 98 days.

Whether 28.8K was the bottom, or we move lower first is yet to be seen. It's not very important for the general high timeframe of this idea.

I would just like to point out that we haven't seen anything outrageous here.

Putting the same time cycle 2 did for it's second push up, after the current time would put the top for this cycle at late December 2021.

🔹Longer Cycles, Diminished Returns?

This is one point I would like to refer to @intocryptoverse who highlights this idea very well in many of his video's.

I'll try to summarize it as well as I can.

The idea is that with every new $BTC cycle, we would see it last longer and see lower returns.

So far, this theory has proven itself to be true for the most part. Especially the diminished return part.

This can be seen very well in the image below.

We can also see a slight increase in the length of the cycles, measured from bear market bottom to bull market top.

This all makes a lot of sense as the market matures and it takes a lot more volume and time to move price around.

Compare the now $1T+ market cap to the crypto market cap 10 years ago.

Good luck trying to buy $1M of Bitcoin back then. While nowadays, this wouldn't even move the market by more than a few dollars.

The fact we may be seeing longer cycles would also help this bias of this cycle not being over. It doesn't have to mean we MUST set a new cycle high before EOY when it starts a new bear market, as we saw with previous cycles.

For all we know, this cycle correction could take a few more months and we might see a pump or new highs in Q2 or Q3 in 2022.

This past cycle has proven us once again, that nothing is too crazy for $BTC. We've seen it all.

🔹Why I think the Cycle is not over

There is no way to say with 100% confidence that we're still yet to see new highs in this cycle and that the top is not already in.

I would like to quickly address a few points which make me think that we are still in the bull cycle.

In the thread below which I posted within this 30-43K range, I explained how a lot of FUD has driven price down and that bigger players are likely absorbing this selling pressure.

It's also very clear how sentiment is as bearish as it can get and that people all around me are losing interest.

This is also easily seen by the lower engagement 90% of the bigger CT accounts are getting.

Historically, these times have ALWAYS turned out to be great buys in the long run.

It's insane to me how people would laugh at you for taking profit at $50K+ and now those same people can't wait to sell you every single coin they have at $30K.

It's always the same.

What's also fun to note is the fact that that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 2018 Bear market and March 2020 lows.

That says enough about the current sentiment.

The new retail investors are now conditioned to short every pump, as my friend @Timeless_Crypto has worded very well.

We have lots of untapped highs and huge open interest in shorts open. So we won't have to worry about fuel once $BTC does move up.

All in all, I do think anything between $20-40K would be a good place to DCA in on $BTC and I personally doubt we won't see $100K within a few years.

Whether it's after an extended bear market or already at the end of the year.

That's for you to decide.

I hope that this thread has been interesting and helpful for you guys.

I'm personally very excited to find out how this cycle will evolve.

I wish you all a great day and good luck out there in the markets! 😄📈


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