I have zero doubt that the UK will rejoin Europe.

It might be in a slightly different form than official membership - but we will rejoin.

I strongly suspect at least 80% of MPs think so too. Probably as many as 90%.

This is just a difficult phase we have to navigate.

Quite funny how so many think that Brexit is such a trauma from which UK & EU can never recover their relationship.

Within a decade of WW II the forerunner of the EEC was formed with erstwhile enemies.

And this not just some pro EU opinion.

The simple fact is if something is in everyone’s interests eventually it’ll get done.

In 15 years the EU will be 500 million people potentially with 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 & unified 🇮🇪.

2016-22 will be as far away as debates about the Iraq war are now.

In 2030 likely major issues for European continent will be

1. Climate disaster management
2. Dealing with China
3. Collapse of Saudi Arabia
4. EU-Russia relationship

The idea that anyone will be much interested in what Boris (Lord Henley) said to Barnier in 2020 is absurd.

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More from @nicktolhurst

20 Jul

UK govt has now contacted major corporations & employers and told them that the hugely expensive UK “Test & Trace” system can now be ignored.

People who are ‘pinged’ are free to make their own “informed decisions” on whether to isolate or not.

To clarify:

I had this information already yesterday morning, but sat on it as I didn’t feel comfortable about communicating this.

However now it’s clearly in the public domain I feel that my communication is fair & reasonable.

Feel it’s important to include this from a govt near/friendly media commentator.

“Advice” & “strong encouragement” for self isolation to continue.

Govt messaging all over the place quite frankly.

Read 5 tweets
16 Jul
Alastair Stewart to leave GB News.

Citing health reasons, Stewart is to taken an extensive leave of absence after he damaged his hip walking his horse out of his stables.

No return date has been publicly specified other than it “will be a while”.
A number of media now reporting on Alastair Stewart’s leaving GB News.

Alastair Stewart, who joined the anti metropolitan elite channel in June, has apparently had to leave the channel after a horse related injury at his stables on his Hampshire country estate.
Privately educated - old Salesian - Alastair Stewart runs an “amateur gentleman’s farm” worth £3 million in Hampshire in order to unwind after his busy schedule at the people’s anti metropolitan elite GB News channel.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul
Seen a few threads today from the “nice & polite end” of Conservative spectrum on the footballer/racism issue.

Some journalists are now trying to spin that “of course racist trolling of footballers is wrong but the whole debate shouldn’t be powered by a few hundred trolls.”


The problem is the issue only exploded due to the deliberate Conservative led “culture war” on these issue in 1st place.

Had the Tories merely respected take knee protest, it would’ve become like those minute silences - a few yobs whistling but no one important complaining.

In other words:

It was precisely due to Tory MPs/media whipping up a storm about a perfunctory 3second gesture that brought this whole mess up.

To complain about a few hundred trolls & foreign accounts misses the point - it was party policy to make this a hot issue.
Read 9 tweets
14 Jul
Once it became clear Brexit not a utopia but dull, disappointing reality the flag waving nationalism was always bound to wear thin.

The vaccine roll out postponed this, but now UK has highest Covid cases/deaths in Europe & the EU has caught up on vaccination rates - what’s left?
UK is no longer the European country with highest vaccination rate and it’s likely Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands & others will also overtake UK before August.

The NHS deserves praise for their fast action but it’s hard to see how Johnson can dine out on this for much longer.
If the UK had had a quicker vaccination program with lower cases/deaths then I think Johnson could have credibly linked this to his govt.

But as we’re now reaching point EU countries are overtaking us on vaccines and we still have higher Covid this isn’t going to work.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jul
Interesting from @Dannythefink but surprised he misses the key driver:

It’s not surprising London young vote labour when even those on 30k are fleeced of over 50% of their pay by private landlords.

Housing wealth, not income, now drives votes.

It’s also no surprise that modest income older traditional labour voters vote Tory when they sit on a £200 000 asset they bought for 20k.

And when they’ve seen tories sink interest rates close to zero & triple locked pensions but tripled student fees.

People really don’t get how much this has perverted society.
The UK is now approaching the point of being both “more capitalist” than much of the west but simultaneously having lowest home ownership in the west.

In other words capitalism without a majority of capitalists.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
This article from @sarahoconnor_ has got a lot of traction with Brexity types...unfortunately the truth is rather more complex.

ALL EU countries have been moving towards large scale abattoirs often intimately connected/owned by a single retail chain they save.


The idea that EU membership fed this is thus getting the cart before the horse. Indeed given the concentration of retail giants in UK compared to EU economies + a move away from EU agricultural standards...Brexit is almost certain to make this situation worse not better.

As a wishy-washy liberal I'd love EU farm standards to be raised higher but idea that EU workers were responsible for this is simply wrong. It's the power of UK supermarkets dominating UK food consumption that has shaped food production.

Only govt & laws can change this...
Read 4 tweets

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