The cost of natural disasters has been going down since 1990

The world’s leading expert on this is @RogerPielkeJr who testified before the Senate on this 2 days ago

@SenatorTester asked the expert from the Union of Concerned Scientists to counter him & of course she couldn’t
That @SenatorTester & so many people are shocked by what should be commonplace knowledge shows the degree to which activists, scientists, & journalists have brainwashed everyone into thinking the exact opposite of the truth
For decades, Roger has explained that the rising cost of disasters is a consequence of more wealth in harm's way.
He shows people pictures of Miami Beach from 1925 and today. When you factor in rising wealth, which is called "normalizing" the data, there is no trend.
But surely hurricanes are hitting more frequently?

They're not.
It's true that the best-available science shows that hurricanes and tropical storms will rise 5% in the 21st Century — but the same science shows their frequency will *decline* by 25%…
The response to Roger's scientific integrity from journalists, policymakers, and activist-scientists has been shameful. @amprog @michaelemann & "journalists" relentless smeared him. @RepRaulGrijalva implied he was taking money from Exxon. Roger's colleagues behaved cowardly.
They attack Roger because his research undermines their strategy of using every extreme weather event as an opportunity to terrify the population, lobby for subsidies, and evangelize for the new religion. What they most fear is that the public will one day see facts like these:
Yes, there is nuance. Climate change brings more extreme precipitation. But overall, flooding is going down. This only seems paradoxical if you think humans are helpless against... more rain. We're not. We're incredibly good at dealing with it

Naturally, Roger was among the first to point out how what appears to be paradoxical — more rain and yet less flooding — makes perfect sense. Because: humans are amazing

The attacks on Roger are part of the broader trend toward what @JonHaidt calls "safetyism," which is the tendency, particularly among progressives, to view people, particular the poor, as essentially helpless victims of their environments.…
You see it in the tweets by @GretaThunberg & other apocalyptic alarmists every time there's a flood or hurricane. But you also see it among IPCC coauthors who suggest that Bangladesh will somehow be unable to adapt to rising sea levels in the ways Netherlands did.
Apocalypse Never contains a passage where I challenge IPCC coauthor Michael Oppenheimer about his claim that climate change could become "unmanageable." He backed down after I pressed him, but most journalists never do that, because they want to write the alarmist story.

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More from @ShellenbergerMD

21 Jul
Year of Flood in China : Death Toll

1954: 30,000
1911: 100,000
1935: 145,000
1887: 1,000,000
1931: 2,000,000

Source: Angus Gunn, Encyclopedia of Disasters, 2007
But weren't past floods due to poverty whereas today's floods are due to excess rainfall?

No. "Whilst the roots of the 1931 flood lay in pattern of environmental history, the proximate cause of the disaster was extremely high levels of precipitation."…
Does that mean climate change isn't playing a role in China's floods? No. But its role has to be considered in context of urbanization, better infrastructure, and declining deaths and damages…
Read 9 tweets
20 Jul
If climate change is worsening disasters, high-intensity fires, & mass extinction (ie 75% species) then why

- are disaster deaths at their lowest in 120 years?

- do high-intensity fires become low-intensity ones in well-managed forests?

- are 73% of species *not* threatened?
I have been accused of being wrong about disasters, fires, and extinctions, and of course I might be: I have been wrong before. More than once. And I am human.

But when I have been shown to be wrong, I have not only admitted it, I have explained why & how I was wrong, in detail.
I was wrong about nuclear energy. I thought we didn't need it. I thought the waste was a huge problem. I thought many died from nuclear energy accidents.

I investigated why I was so wrong & spoke publicly about it:

Read 13 tweets
19 Jul
People say climate change caused the floods in Europe but the main reason for them was the failure of warning systems, dams, and the public's response.

In truth, deaths & damage from flooding in Europe declined dramatically over last 150 years…
The floods in Europe that killed over 150 people in recent days were a result of climate change, many people say. “Deadly Floods Show World Unprepared to Cope with Extreme Weather,” blared the headline of The New York Times.…
“‘No One Is Safe.’” Said a German climate activist, “This is the climate crisis unravelling in one of the richest parts of the world.” The country’s interior minister agreed. "This is a consequence of climate change," he said.
Read 37 tweets
14 Jul
“There are a lot of myths around the Portuguese model,” said the architect of its drug program.

The main one, he said, is that “we just liberalized [drugs], that 'You can do whatever you want. You have all the room to develop the behavior you wish.’ That’s not the case."
"Using drugs is still prohibited. There’s a clear sign of disapproval from our society. We do not incentivize or normalize the use of drugs.”

“If somebody was injecting heroin in public in Portugal,” I asked, “what would happen to them?”

“They would be arrested.”
We were on Zoom and I had a shocked look on my face.
“Yes!” he said. “You would sent to the police station. The substances would be apprehended. And if he or she had more than the amount for personal use for 10 days, there would be criminal penalties."
Read 6 tweets
14 Jul
Drug deaths skyrocketed to 93,000 deaths in 2020

Increased from 72,000 deaths in 2019

Drug abuse is the biggest problem in America

We need to wake up to the crisis and take strong action…
In the late 1990s I advocated for drug decriminalization, harm reduction, and liberalized drug laws

I thought it would result in people getting the help they needed — treatment rather than prison

I was wrong. The policies had some benefits but also contributed to rising deaths
Over the last several years I have tried to understand what we got wrong and how to make it right

I have recently published a series of articles on the topic, and in October, HarperCollins will publish a book by me on the topic…
Read 10 tweets
13 Jul
New study finds that, of the people released from jail before trial in San Francisco, half committed new crimes and 1 out of 6 committed a violent crime

"San Francisco’s observed safety rate is substantially lower than local & national validated rates"…
I, like many people, have long liked the idea of pre-trial diversion, for some crimes. Why hold people in jail at great cost to taxpayer? Few will re-offend, I thought.

That assumption turned out to be wrong.
“Nobody can look at this report and say we’re doing great. It validates the experience that people in San Francisco are feeling when they’re concerned about crime,” said SF Supervisor @SupStefani

She was rightly skeptical about previous (wrong) reports of low recidivism rates.
Read 9 tweets

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