Thread by @billroggio

Not to say I told you so (but I told you so), now the U.S. military realizes that the Afghan govt is losing and must consolidate its forces and abandon large areas of the country to defend the defensible and have a shot at retaking key terrain:

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

I wrote on May 25, when the Taliban offensive was starting to take shape, that "The ANSDF will need to consolidate positions to hold areas that it has a higher chance of defending."
Cont...
longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/…

Continued... "This means that, at a minimum, it must withdraw its forces from the south and east, while redeploying them to the center and north."

Had the Afghan gov't did this, it may not have lost such large areas in the north.

Also from May 25 report: "The Taliban has also made major inroads into northern provinces ... such as Sar-i-Pul, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar. They are all under Taliban pressure."
Weeks later, the Taliban went all in on the north.

How did U.S. military commanders and intelligence leaders, with the (supposedly) finest intelligence services and analytical branches at their disposal, not see this coming? Were they blind, or did they refuse to see?