Being cautious & protecting oneself & others isn't 'cowering'? Many want to protect themselves & loved ones, including CEV & those who're unvaccinated, who are even greater risk. Those who are vaccinated can get infected, transmit & get long COVID. What sort of messaging is this?
I'm CV & vaccinated. Your policy is that people like me should shield. Is this 'cowering'? Are you saying that we're cowards for following your policies, that ask us to shield because we're no longer protected when we go out? Because you removed those protections?
Is my husband a 'coward' because he takes care to not meet with others without masks, distancing & ventilation so he doesn't put me and my daughter at risk, who isn't eligible for vaccination? Because he worries that I might get very ill if I get infected?
Caring isn't cowardice. Removing protections from people when almost half of our population hasn't been vaccinated to bow to ideology is.
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Let's looks at the highly flawed study that is being cited as showing no difference between LFD testing and isolation of contacts in schools. This is simply incorrect, and the premise of the trial as reported in the preprint out now is rather shocking from an ethics perspective🧵
First, this is a 'non-inferiority' trial. Such trials essentially compare A with B, and decide what level of difference between A (intervention) and B (control) would be acceptable before hand, and design the trial only to pick up this difference.
So such trials cannot say A=B, but can say A is not worse than B by x% (with x% being decided beforehand).
So what difference was this trial designed to find?
It was designed to find a 50% or greater change in transmission in the intervention compared to control arm.
Ok, time to do a thread on long COVID. Long COVID is a *real* multi-system syndrome that occurs in those infected (far more common than in uninfected controls)- predominantly impacting the young. Let's do a deep delve into this syndrome that some in JCVI are in denial about! 🧵
Some stats first - there are several studies that now put the overall incidence of long COVID as between 10-50% of those infected, depending on symptoms studied & cohorts studied. Let's look at some of these.
First, ONS data & REACT-1 data- these are some of the most robust data on long COVID. Why?
-They include infections based on PCR tests through random nationally representative surveys of thousands of people
-ONS data was based on 313,216 samples, REACT-1 on 508,707 people
We are rapidly opening up in the middle of a raging pandemic- because death and suffering is inevitable (we're all going to die & suffer, so why not now? And if not now, when?). Life is just delaying death! Health is just delaying illness!🧵
Our fate is sealed. I'm sure the unvaccinated 20-30 somethings in ICUs would end up there anyway even if they were fully vaccinated- if not because of covid, because of something else!
Q: I don't get it- you're saying vaccines are amazing, & everyone should get vaccinated. But more time to vaccinate more people wouldn't have prevented any hospitalisations?
Oh, yes, I think vaccines are amazing. They mean we can do stuff we weren't able to do before!
Have discussed the flaws in this study before- it's really worrying it's being put out without any discussion of limitations despite being out of line with most studies on long COVID to date.🧵
First regular serology tests are not sensitive to past infection in children - these need to be modified to detect infection accurately in children. Also as most children are asymptomatic, antibodies, even if detected, likely wane faster than in adults. nature.com/articles/s4159…
Misclassification (classification of those previously infected as not infected) in this study is likely to be high, which makes it very difficult.
Second, it's retrospective- parents asked about symptoms *6 months* after serology done. Asking to recall symptoms & duration.
Funny to see @JeremyFarrar writing an 'explosive' book about his time with govt. Did he every consider speaking up during the past 18 months? How does it feel to be a whistleblower after supporting the dismissal of several whistleblowers (including myself) from @sangerinstitute ?
I guess you didn't speak up because of fear you might be victimised? After all, you're only the director of the Wellcome Trust? Remember those African institutions who got screwed over by the @sangerinstitute when their samples & data were used unethically without their consent.
What about your 'chaotic management' of that? The people who exploited data and samples from African communities are still there. And you're completely complicit in whitewashing this, and victimising many of us who were bullied & intimidated out. I was one of them. Remember me?
Let's be under no illusions- we are in a country where our government is taking steps to maximally expose our young to a virus that causes chronic illness in many. Our govt is ending all protections for our children including isolation of contacts of cases in schools & bubbles.🧵
They've been told millions will be infected, predominantly our young. Our own CMO has said that we will see 'significant increases in long COVID among our young'.
But this isn't inevitable. This is the path our govt has chosen with support from our CMO
Case rates in 2ndary school children are >700/100,000. When we talk of >800,000 children being absent from schools, this isn't because of problems with bubbles, it's because our govt is allowing hundreds of thousands of children to be exposed to this virus every wk.