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25 Jul, 4 tweets, 7 min read
What are some of the triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
(Same question on LessWrong.)

lesswrong.com/posts/yHuuNhqy…
@yashkaf @jlagerros @SpencrGreenberg @s_r_constantin @SamoBurja @krzhang @AnnaWSalamon @KatjaGrace @ozziegooen @WilliamAEden @jimrandomh @daniel_filan @ConnorFlexman @ohabryka

(anyone else that I should add?)
@yashkaf @jlagerros @SpencrGreenberg @s_r_constantin @SamoBurja @krzhang @AnnaWSalamon @KatjaGrace @ozziegooen @WilliamAEden @jimrandomh @daniel_filan @ConnorFlexman @ohabryka 4 @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @EpistemicHope

Eli Tyre Profile picture
25 Jul
Folks who believe that "induction is impossible", can you clarify what you mean by that?

I can think of at least four (not quite mutually exclusive) possibilities.
1. Predicting the future based on past data is a thing that has straightforwardly never happened.

As in, it is physically impossible for someone to reason thusly: "I think the sun will rise tomorrow, because it has risen ever day in the past."
I don't THINK this is what people mean, since that seems like an absurd proposition. But maybe I'm missing some nuance.
Read 10 tweets
Eli Tyre Profile picture
23 Jul
I'm not entirely sure what cognitive sequence lead me to that distinction, but I think it might have been (in part) downstream of editing my current date-me page (elityre.com/date.html).

This section felt kind of grammatically weird to me. And I think it was because I was sort of switching back and forth between talking about the the kind of relationship and the kind of person. Image
Looking at it now, it doesn't feel as awkward, though. So dunno.

I think part of it was that I was a little bit more tapped into the STATE of what I want, instead of working with abstracted descriptors.
Read 9 tweets
Eli Tyre Profile picture
23 Jul
One thing thing that I clarified for myself today, in doing "romantic-goal strategy", is the difference between delineating what kind of _partner_ I want vs. what kind of _partnership_ I want.

Focusing on the kind of partnership I want feels healthier.
It's probably more effective, in that I can lay out the target and then let the other person figure out if they want to aim for it, and if so, HOW they want to do that.
I want to be clear about the goal, and not lose track of what I want and care about, but I don't want to be rigid in my assumptions about the form that a solution has to take.
Read 7 tweets
Eli Tyre Profile picture
18 Jul
Folks who do psychological parts work (Focusing, IFS, etc.),

Will the science of the future find that parts / subagents are neurologically "real"? (eg we'll be able isolate a neural structure that instantiates a given part)

Or are they merely helpful metaphors?
Another (maybe better?) way of operationalizing this:

Are parts distinct and persistent entities that exist when you're NOT doing parts work?

Or are they more like the handles for doing perspective taking, spun up for change work, but which don't persistently exist?
In that second hypothesis, parts have the same ontological status as _query responses_.
Read 19 tweets
Eli Tyre Profile picture
10 Jun
Real frontiers, places were something new is happening are always filled with scams.

This is true of crypto, as it was of the internet bubble at the turn of the century, and it was probably also true of various gold rushes and oil-prospecting and land speculation schemes.
Basically, if there's something new and important, a wealth-creating engine, there's an opportunity to invest in that new thing, and reap big financial gains.

People are greedy, and so they want to get some of those gains for themselves.
This creates an opportunity for scammers and swindlers:
Read 12 tweets
Eli Tyre Profile picture
6 Jun
In _Diplomacy_, Kissinger points out that balance-of-power systems are rare in human geopolitics. A much more common international organizing principle is empire.
This leaves me with the impression that there are roughly two kinds of geopolitical orders:
1) Equilibrium / balance-of-power / or multi-state scenarios: in which there are many nations, no single one of which is powerful enough to dominate the others, and if any try the others gang up on it in self defense.

Ex: Europe, the Hellenistic city-states
Read 7 tweets

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