Thread by @DonaldWelsh16

Good News. The NYT has decided it's acceptable to discuss the topic of C19 vaccine failure. Even Dr. Fauci agrees. Perhaps, the mounting evidence is too substantive to ignore. Lets consider some details and the implications. 1/

Public health positioned respiratory vaccines as the magic cure-all. It would both save society and wash away their sins, like lockdowns, pehaps the worst policy idea ever. We were told the sacrifices of today would bring salvation tomorrow. 2/

It takes years to properly develop a vaccine and no, gobs of cash and public health cheerleading doesn't change this reality. Nor does the warp speed cutting of regulatory corners at the expense of safety, efficiacy and durability. 4/

But perhaps more disturbing was the deliberate misrepresentation of their utlility. It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy. 4/

Respiratory vaccines, as currently conceived, can't effectively block viral infection or transmission. There are basic technical limitations. Perhaps, however, they would diminish disease severity, a worthy goal particularly for those at risk of hospitalization and death. 5/

This assumption now seems uncertain, as data rolls in from Britain and Israel. 4-6 months out, relative vaccine efficacy has dropped markedly and the benefit of vaccination in preventing serious illness/death appears muted. This is particularly notable in at risk groups. 6/

There are many aspects to vaccine failure at the population level and they are tricky. There's the issue of immunosenescence and breakthrough infections, the later a panicked result of vaccinating when viral circulation is high and the antigenic target small. 7/

So that's the rub, the public collectively sacrificed for an end point that was never really achievable. This is the conservation that society is now avoiding as it drives to the heart of "trust" and "honesty". Ever more so, given the serious concerns with vaccine safety. 8/

Avoiding this conversation has become a cottage industry in Canada. Public health has instead obsessed over vaccinating swaths of the population who aren't at personal risk and where benefit is marginal at best. This obsession has further eroded "trust". 9/

The failure of public health to deal with reality has had wide ranging implications. It has spawned an ever worsening campaign of coercion unhinged from the viral concern. Basic right/freedoms curtailed and medical ethics destroyed. It has been depressing predictable. 10/

More seriously, the legitimacy of gov't is now being questioned along with public health given its continuous string of failure. The former will survive and later is far less certain given the magnitude of this debacle. 11/

If there is one thing society should learn from this fiasco and the magic thinking of vaccines is that "trust" and "honesty" are important. And those that treat them with contempt should be swiftly removed from positions of authority. End.