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Anders Åslund

25 Jul, 9 tweets, 2 min read

A few thoughts on the consequences of the disastrous German-US agreement to complete Nord Stream 2:
1. A broad Ukrainian opinion sees this decision as a betrayal & have now been alienated from both the US & Germany.
2. Effectively, Merkel killed the Minsk process.

3. The only serious hope for a cleansing of the Ukrainian legal system was the US. Now that is probably gone. With its completely politicized legal system, the US lacks credibility on judicial reform.
4. US ranks #61 on Freedom House's democracy, lacking democratic credibility.

5. After half a year of the Biden administration, the US has failed to even nominate any ambassador to Ukraine or Russia or confirm an assistant secretary of state for Europe. Is the US a serious country? It does not look like it. That is the new Ukrainian view.

6. For Ukraine, the US decision to support the construction of NS2 was a big national shock. Ukrainians immediately start turning to Turkey & China as possibly more reliable allies.

7. For the US, Ukraine has been a country it could always take for granted. That ended with the US NS2 decision. Previously, Ukraine has been trying to ingratiate itself with Washington. Now the US needs to shape up if it does not want to lose one of its most loyal allies.

8. Remember that Ukraine has supported the US militarily on a big scale in both Iraq & Afghanistan. Do Americans even know that? What did Ukraine receive in return? Today, Ukraine is holding up the Western front against the Russian aggressor militarily with no return.

9. The US has minimized all its sanctions on Russia this year for all reasons, giving the EU an easy lead. Why no sanctions on Belarus in parallel to the EU, etc.? In April, when Russia mobilized around Ukraine, the NSC stopped US naval ships from entering the Black Sea.

10. The most important issue for Ukraine is its relationship with NATO. The US has done nothing to promote a membership action plan and did not even have Ukraine invited to its recent summit. Putin was invited in 2008...
These are not actions of an ally.

11. There are many other elements in the Biden policy on Russia & Ukraine, but the short of it is that it has been disastrous. The US needs to make quick amends if it is not to alienate Ukraine for good. The current weak US policy is a major danger for European security.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

23 Jul

Immediately after the disastrous US-German agreement on no sanctions on Nord Stream 2, Angela Merkel called Putin to celebrate her achievement with Biden. Why? Is she trying to qualify for a Russian state corporate job after her retirement like Schröder?
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

"The leaders are satisfied with the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is nearing completion. The President of Russia noted Germany’s consistent commitment to implementing this project, which is strictly a commercial venture...

...and is designed to enhance energy security of Germany and the rest of the EU. Ms Merkel told Mr Putin about the discussion on the developments around the pipeline project with US President Joseph Biden in Washington." Why?

Read 5 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

22 Jul

Yesterday, the Biden administration tried to put an end to the Nord Stream 2 controversy. Did it? I doubt it. This appears to be itsa defining foreign policy mistake unless it changes it, as I still hope it will. Everything was wrong.

2. The essence of the German-US joint statement is that the US stopped its opposition to NS2, overruling two US sanctions laws, without getting anything in return, allowing itself to be defeated by Putin, Schröder & Warnig. Is this the US?!
auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/ne…

3. By not inviting the main parties concerned, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, the US & Germany alienated them, notably Ukraine.

Read 8 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

21 Jul

What the Biden administration should do on Russia/Ukraine/Nord Stream 2.
1. Follow the Interim National Security Strategy: "Russia remains determined to enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the world stage."
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

2. Russia as a disruptive (possibly rogue) power does not obey international law as Putin proves all the time & it should not be expected to do so. US officials need to stop hoping for "Russia's good will" (even Blinken hope for that recently).

3. The general conclusion is that if you don't hit Putin hard between the eyes, you will not be taken seriously. In order to become serious in relation to Russia, the Biden administration has no choice but to sanction Nord Stream 2 fully as the Congress has LEGISLATED.

Read 13 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

20 Jul

This Politico article captures the absurdity of the Biden administration policy on Nord Stream 2. Biden is against it, but his staff want to get it done to the benefit of Putin & his German agents Schröder & Stasi agent Warnig against the EU & Ukraine.
politico.com/news/2021/07/2…

Nord Stream 2 is a Russian geopolitical project aiming at breaking up the EU, promoting corrupt revenues of Putin's friends, corrupting German & Austrian elites, damaging the EU market-oriented energy policy & undermining EU energy security.
atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-resea…

Biden used to be against Nord Stream 2, but now his administration has become the main ally of Putin & the corrupt elements in Germany to get it done. Why? Don't they understand or what...? has somebody already been bribed? Putin is so good at that.

Read 8 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

16 Jul

@POTUS

It was good that @POTUS & Chancellor Merkel spoke a lot about Ukraine in their press comments, but what they said was not reassuring.
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Biden: "I reiterated my concerns about Nord Stream 2, Chancellor Merkel and I are absolutely united in our conviction that Russia must not be allowed to use energy as a weapon to coerce or threaten its neighbors."
Good but how? This sounds like eyewash.

Merkel: "We will be actively acting should Russia not respect this right of Ukraine that it has as a transit country. So Nord Stream 2 is an additional project and certainly not a project to replace any kind of transit through Ukraine."
As empty as a threat gets.

Read 5 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

15 Jul

Most interesting. Moskovsky Komsomolets' excellent pro-Kremlin foreign political observer Mikhail Rostovsky reads Putin's article on Ukraine just like me: "Putin issued the last ultimatum to Ukraine: 'Kiev does not need Donbass'."
mk.ru/politics/2021/…

As a Moscow insider, Rostovsky spells out what Putin really meant to those who did not understand.
1. Russia's policy on Ukraine has changed.
2. Russia will not accept what happens in Ukraine's domestic politics but engage.
3. "Russia was actually robbed" of territories.

4. Kiev does not need Donbass any longer. Who needs it? [Russia!]
5. Putin does not only talk about Donbass: Millions of people in Ukraine oppose the Ukrainian project "anti-Russia".
6. Naturally, Russia will defend these millions.

Read 7 tweets

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