Thread by @DavidHenigUK

Have to credit @DavidGauke with almost carrying out an interview here with Dominic Cummings on various aspects of Brexit, trade and the Northern Ireland protocol. And indeed for clear answers.

However from a trade wonk point of view what these reveal is a worrying knowledge gap.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1419305167128760331

Quickly though on one point, there's no doubt this was right, triggering Article 50 without a plan or leverage was silly. But I don't think would have changed the situation wrt Northern Ireland and Brexit...

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1419298043338403845

Problem is summed up here - Northern Ireland would have been a small part of the negotiation. That wouldn't have been the case because it goes to the heart of two Brexit issues - international relations, and trade. Fundamentally.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1419303030432968706

On trade, the simple part is that there is a choice between borders and alignment. Choose to leave the single market, choose a border. Or stay, take the regulation, no border. No getting away from that.

However in the case of Northern Ireland you have an international treaty which says both communities must have their identities respected. Which in turn means the absence of a border either East-West or North-South. So leave the single market, you have a treaty problem.

Which brings us to the international relations part of Northern Ireland and Brexit. Ireland is in the EU and staying, and insist on no north-south border. Ireland also has strong influence on the US. Break treaty with Ireland border, EU and US against you.

Does it matter that the US and EU are against us? Yes if you are trying to say Brexit won't make that much difference to our trade and economy, when Nissan and car industry are saying no deal = leaving the UK. Size imbalance, we need them more. Unless we're going self sufficient.

Those trade and international relations fundamentals thus take you to either the May solution, whole UK alignment, or the protocol. There's still no magical other way, in which we invent a new border. But then there's a bigger issue here for Brexit as a whole.

The UK can be outside the EU, and we can be successful. Nothing axiomatic in leave = decline. But you can't do that if you don't understand the fundamentals of trade, as shown in Northern Ireland. Which means taking on your own side, who disagree. But that puts Brexit at risk.

So choose your Brexit. The moderate one which brings some remainers along is derided as in name only. But the hard one relies on a model of trade and international relations that doesn't exist and leads to permanent tension. And that's been the case since 2016. /end

PS I suppose the TL:DR is "Brexit does not exist in a vacuum, and a top ten (but not top three) economy can't be an island cut off from world trade norms"