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David Henig Profile picture
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26 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
So what's the overall approach to Chinese investment in the UK? Or EU, or US? And to trade ties, are we assuming future de-linkage, or is this simply not possible? What would it mean for global institutions? Big questions, shortage of answers. ft.com/content/c4a3fe…
No, I don't have the magical answer as to future relations between Europe / North America and China either. I'm just concerned that the general strategy seems to be a large shrug and hoping for the best.
Shipping container rates, another complex story about which we know far too little. But at this rate, build shipping containers.
Glib response, this should make the US warm toward carbon border adjustments. Slightly more seriously, this blows any chance of a global solution out of the window, so that's the UK approach dead after a week. More seriously, can EU and US agree?
In particular waiting for a US approach to carbon border adjustments. Supports the administration's approach to climate change, domestic production and China. But doesn't play well to Republican climate change denial. Game changer if US and EU agree though.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
27 Jul
Just engaging with a few Brexit ultras. It appears that they have still learned nothing of trade, Ireland, international relations, even the size of the UK compared to the EU. The government talks that talk, but to walk it would mean economic isolation, which they can't do.
Though not a phrase used often, to be fair to Boris Johnson he managed to betray Brexit ultras and the DUP over Northern Ireland and a trade deal while making them think he was their hero, and keeps doing so. Any other Conservative leader would be in big trouble over Brexit.
Which again is why we are at a stalemate over Northern Ireland, Frost and Johnson have to do the macho talk to please the ultras, but can't afford to actually start a trade war and lose Nissan and the European supply chains. All pretty unstable though.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Jul
Spot on. The continued refusal to take Northern Ireland trade issues seriously in government and among cheerleaders has become symbolic of their lack of understanding of the world as it is, as opposed to how they think it should work.
The FT is not mincing words though failing to come to terms with the fact that compromise with a UK government that simply refuses to take trade realities seriously is not possible. ft.com/content/2f3437…
Suspect the EU also realise that time as well as international economic power is on their side over Northern Ireland. The longer the UK government complain about Northern Ireland the more they remind people Brexit is not done. Take action, consequence. Go quiet, unionist anger.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Jul
Have to credit @DavidGauke with almost carrying out an interview here with Dominic Cummings on various aspects of Brexit, trade and the Northern Ireland protocol. And indeed for clear answers.

However from a trade wonk point of view what these reveal is a worrying knowledge gap.
Quickly though on one point, there's no doubt this was right, triggering Article 50 without a plan or leverage was silly. But I don't think would have changed the situation wrt Northern Ireland and Brexit...
Problem is summed up here - Northern Ireland would have been a small part of the negotiation. That wouldn't have been the case because it goes to the heart of two Brexit issues - international relations, and trade. Fundamentally.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Jul
Just the chairman of a major UK company whingeing about international trade being unfair, and making it the fault of nasty foreigners. Not surprising M&S is struggling with 'leadership' (and I use the term loosely) as bad as this.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Perhaps if M&S had a Chairman who understood international trade it could have started making preparations for inevitable changes ahead of time?
Apparently Norman gets a salary of at least £600k for being M&S Chairman. Maybe a small deduction to pay for some trade expertise would be a better use of the company's money?
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Jul
A small straw in the wind to see arch old school Republican / free trader Irwin Stelzer support the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, as well as a UK version. Shows again how out of touch the UK government is on international economy issues.
There is an urgent need for the UK government to lose a long outdated view of free trade as being about the absence of tariffs and engage with the actual world of non tariff barriers, global supply chains, and broader policy goals. Unlikely though while having the same advisers.
I suspect the UK will be forced to adopt our own carbon border pricing scheme very soon, overtaking the rather unimpressive green trade report of earlier this week. Because international political reality. Again.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Jul
Lots of stories and tweets about shortages of food, and whether this is all about Brexit, covid, or a combination. In the last week I've seen one local supermarket overflowing and one with bare shelves. But the latter, a truly dreadful Tesco, often has those. So what's happening?
Sorry if you've heard this one before, but if you're running hugely complex modern supply chains, and throw in major changes to trade relations and labour market at the same time as a pandemic then some disruption is pretty likely. But generally we don't seem to have shortages.
Away from the excitable worlds of extreme remain and leave, seemingly only different in what happens after the country entirely collapses, lies the dull reality of global giants maintaining their supply chains as best they can around political change. Harder post Brexit, but...
Read 7 tweets

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