You know what worries me a lot more than COVID-19? People. Particularly angry, fearful people.
Make no mistake; they are afraid. Denial of reality is a coping mechanism for many. But you can’t avoid reality forever, and eventually they’ll turn on the enablers of that delusion.
The current crop of politicians who’ve promised freedom won’t be able to deliver it.
We’ll inevitably have to live with some level of restrictions until we have more of the world vaccinated with better vaccines. Will these people accept that?
But there’s a bigger problem. Many countries could have eliminated COVID-19 in early 2020 had they chosen to. It would not be a stretch to say that it was to an ideological choice to have a pandemic, to some degree.
I don’t hold any side of politics particularly responsible for this, because the failure to act comes from a deeper, selfish impulse common to all of us.
We weren’t prepared to accept some personal inconvenience for the benefit of all.
But we need to get our house in order, and quickly. The pandemic has exposed shocking failures of our economic and social institutions. e.g., essential workers who can’t afford to isolate if they test positive, elderly people abandoned in nursing homes.
How long can this go on?
We also never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008. We simply papered over the cracks. But the economic carnage from the pandemic we chose to have may make the wheels finally fall off.
I don’t think the situation is hopeless. We do, however, stand at a crossroads. What kind of society do we want to be? What kind of future will our children inherit? We face enormous challenges, but we’ve already proved how resourceful we can be if we try.
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Two new pre-print studies from Israel suggest the Pfizer-BNT vaccine is 80% effective against infection & 88% effective against transmission to household contacts. This is very good, but a significant proportion of vaccinated people can still get infected. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Researchers looked at the household contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases.
7.5% of vaccinated household contacts became infected compared to 37.5% of unvaccinated contacts. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
These studies were conducted at a time when the alpha variant was dominant.
It’s likely that effectiveness of the Pfizer-BNT vaccine against transmission is slightly lower for the delta variant.
I’m not confident the Sydney delta variant outbreak will be contained. This fundamentally changes the risk/benefit ratio of the AstraZeneca vaccine for those over 60.
Even a single dose provides >70% protection against hospitalisation & is worth the 0.00002% risk of blood clots.
(1/4) Study showing the B.1.1.7 (alpha/UK) variant is associated with a 52% increase in the risk of being hospitalised compared to the original strain. The increased risk mainly affects those aged 30 years and older. The risk of death is increased by 59%. bmj.com/content/373/bm…
(2/4) The authors also calculated the absolute risk of being hospitalised after testing positive with the B.1.1.7 (alpha/UK) variant.
For children (<10 years old), it was about 1%, and for adolescents, it was 0.7%.
This was not significantly different than the original strain.
(3/4) For 20-29 year olds, the absolute risk of being hospitalised was 1.9% (previously 1.5%).
For 30-39 year olds, the absolute risk of being hospitalised was 3.4% (previously 2.6%).
UK pre-print study showing people infected with the delta variant (B.1.617.2, first identified in India) were 64% more likely to transmit the virus to household members than those infected with alpha (B.1.1.7/UK).
⚠️ Children were 46% more likely to transmit than young adults.
While most older adults have been vaccinated (making them less likely to transmit if infected), less than half of younger adults have been vaccinated.
The higher risk of transmission by children is therefore unlikely to be entirely explained by the vaccination of adults.
It is also likely that many (if not most) of the adult index cases in this study were either unvaccinated, or only partially vaccinated.
Additionally, data published by the UK government last year showed children were more likely to transmit than adults. gov.uk/government/pub…
New data suggest the Pfizer-BNT & Moderna mRNA vaccines are associated with an increased risk (16 cases per million doses) of developing heart inflammation in adolescents & young adults. However, the majority of cases were mild (>80% fully recovered).🧵 fda.gov/media/150054/d…
What does this mean?
For young adults, the benefits of vaccination still outweigh the risks.
For children, the picture *with mRNA vaccines* is less clear and requires careful evaluation of the benefits and potential risks.
Although children are unlikely to develop severe COVID-19, they are at risk of long COVID, and can rarely develop a severe multi-system inflammatory syndrome.
They are also able to transmit the virus to others, including their family members. This may also harm children.