Thread by @gnuseibeh

Major development: Tunisian president sacks government, gives himself executive power, parliament calls it coup…total political chaos. Tunisia tonight is undergoing its most serious test since the Arab spring…it may turn very ugly and descend into civil war like Algeria in 90s

https://twitter.com/skynewsarabia_b/status/1419400382673981446

What is happening in Tunisia is - again, an Arab first. It’s effectively a struggle between staunch islamism vs staunch secularism. Only comparison is Algeria in the 1990s, but with wider Euro-Med-Arab implications here

Unlike Algeria, there hasn’t been widespread Islamist militancy in Tunisia, except ISIS. Will Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Ennahda now invoke MB’s ideological links to militant Islamists in Tunisia? That is the big question and big test for MB…stakes couldn’t be higher

If I was a fly on the wall of global and Tunisian MB, I’d probably be hearing a heated debate: if MB accepts political change in Tunisia now, it may loose Tunisia (a key place for MB). If not, it will undermine Mb’s global PR campaign that falsely claims they don’t do militancy

North Africa has become the scene of the most important strategic battle in the Euro-Med-Arab region. The centre of gravity has shifted to North Africa (Libya, Algeria, Morocco and tonight, Tunisia, the centre of gravity)…

This is so close to Europe & the Arab world. Manchester arena bomber was from Libya, Lockerbie was from Libya, so many terrorist attacks in Europe were by North Africans. The terrorist attack that killed more British victims than any other outside of the UK took was in Tunisia

But the big - and frankly the most important question is: where does what is happening tonight in Tunisia fit with democracy? It is very different from the time of Ben Ali. Tonight is perhaps the start of another big test in compatibility of Arab political culture with democracy

Tunisia tonight: Democracy inside Tunisia vs Islamism vs Euro-Med security…it really is very complex.

Democracy, or civilisation as humanity calls it, is not only incompatible with Islamism, but with Arab political culture in general. Whatever happens in Tunisia tonight will probably reinforce this incompatibility and therefore multiple fake alliances.

What makes Tunisia so important is that because - like Palestine, it is perhaps the only mid-size Arab nation that is not tribal or ethno-religious. Democracy has failed in Palestine and is now failing in Tunisia. Aka we have a big problem

The excuse that Arabs can’t work according to democratic norms was that they are either tribal or ethno-religiously grouped (eg Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Gulf, Yemen, even Libya). Palestine and Tunisia are different and both have failed in their democratic experiments. Awful

We need to ask why is that places like sub-Saharan Africa and Far East end up having some sort of democratic experience - even if limited, but Arab world never does. Is it Islamism? Is it Arabism? Is it tribalism? I don’t know…

We need to watch carefully the reactions out of London, Paris, Washington and Cairo about Tunisia situation. They are the ones that matter most, and what needs analysing is the degree of convergence or variance between statements from the 4 capitals

Islamist, Arabist, democratic, secular or whatever: Tunisia tonight is yet another failed experiment of democracy in the Arab world. Whatever ones political affiliations are, this is very disappointing.

Important thing to watch out. Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia are by no means pro democracy. In fact, one can argue that latest development may be undemocratic, but would preserve democracy in long term. The most anti democratic thing that could happen would be for MB to gain power

Germany says decisions by Tunisian president are NOT a coup. Very important intervention that is a blow to MB

https://twitter.com/skynewsarabia_b/status/1419620337235464194