Thread by @IntelKirby

#Tunisia 🇹🇳.

Thread regarding today political events in the country with important information dating back to the last decade and what I think will most likely happen in the coming days.

⚪Ennahda or Hizb Harakat Al Nahdah was founded in 1981 by the current speaker of the parliament, Rachid Al-Ghannouchi. It was banned and declared illegal by the former president Zine Abidine Ben Ali 30 years + rule

⚪ Following the 2011 revolution which ousted Ben Ali, Ennahda moved to become an official party in Tunisia🇹🇳 in order to play a role in the country democratization. Ennahda won the election in late 2011 gaining 89 seats

⚪ General concern among Tunisian secularists and many other sectors of the population regarding the party affiliation to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamization of the country politics

⚪ 2013-2014. A political crisis erupts following the assassination of secular politicians prompting large protests being organized by secular opposition against the Islamist coalition led by current speaker Ghannouchi.

⚪ the Protestors demanded the Islamist government resigns and a secular constitution is installed. It resulted in the PM to resign, a new constitution was passed however protests didn't stop as Tunisia was dealing with terrorism and economic strugles at the time.

⚪ 2014 elections, Ennahda comes 2nd forming a coalition with the first place, Secular leftist party.

⚪ Strategy was shifted in 2016 with the party pleading that they would focus on ensuring Tunisia remains a stable democracy rather than Islamization of the already Muslim country. Accusations of sabotage and threats were common

⚪ Tunisia via the Western Point of view was the only "success" story I. The Arab spring that was kick-started in Tunis In 2011. Although many challenges they definitely had a better date than neighboring Libya or other countries in region such as Syria, Yemen.

⚪ a major criticism of Ennahda was that they were too weak on terrorism following waves of terror attacks especially on Tourism resorts killing several British tourists in Tunisian beaches.

⚪ in 2019 President Kais Said establishment became president after an election receiving more than 70% of the vote. He ran as independent, however the legislative elections gave Ennahda the biggest party in the parliament despite low turnout fueled by distrust in the political

Establishment

⚪ Riots unfolded in the country earlier this year criticizing the government response to Covid, Mismanagement of the economy, and Police brutality.

🔵WHAT TO EXPECT

Following the decision to suspend the parliament and lift the immunity of all MPs, president Kais may feel emboldened by the celebrations and scenes of support and go further.

MPs belonging to Ennahda may have corruption trials against them and they may be facing Court trials which will certainly help Kais Said in public opinion and support.

⚪ The army has not permitted MPs from re-entering the parliament citing presidential orders, many things could happen but all depends on the reaction of Ennahda supporters who will definitely feel frustrated

⚪ Ennahda officials have called for the Public to restore democracy and that this is a coup by the president. President has also said any violence will be dealt with live ammunition

🔵 Potential Solution.

The President could declare a Constitutional referendum In order to calm the situation, or new legislative elections. While at the same weakening Ennahda by arresting political leaders.

This thread will be updated as events unfold.

🔵Note. President said the parliament is suspended for a minimum of 30 days.