Thread by @AntonSpisak

I think there’s an enormous value in adaptive policymaking. It starts from mapping the environment, identifying uncertainties, and assigning values to possible outcomes. Doing this for the long term is inherently uncertain. /1

https://twitter.com/dominic2306/status/1419413026646732801

Whether Brexit is good or bad in the long term is inherently uncertain because we don’t know what the future will be. But what we know is that it’s contingent on two major variables: (a) the UK’s capacity to outperform EU in key aspects of policy, (b) EU ability to carry on. /2

Re (a), how likely is it that the UK outperforms the EU in domestic and intl policy? That a smaller market will exert greater influence globally? That it will be able to do freely what it wants domestically? And that it will not be diminished by the unraveling of the union? /3

Re (b), how likely is it that the EU ceases to be in the long term? That its market loses its gravitational force? That the union will be ineffective in what it does to the extent that it collapses? /4

We don’t know what Brexit will mean in the long term, because it’s impossible to know that, but we can identify factors on which that outcome depends. And, most people will have a degree of belief about (a) and (b) and be able to make reasonable judgements it on that basis. /End

*about it