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Alec Stapp Profile picture
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26 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The crackdown on tech companies in China seems to have reached a new level... Image
Live look at what happens when the Chinese government nukes your company from orbit Image
yikes Image
Image
Now it’s Tencent’s turn in the barrel ImageImage

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More from @AlecStapp

Alec Stapp Profile picture
25 Jul
The greatest advantage the US retains vis-a-vis China is that immigrants from all around the world would rather move here.
For decades we've rested on our laurels when it comes to immigration.

We even had periods of very nativist immigration policy — basically shooting ourselves in the foot.

Now we need to start actively recruiting talent while demand is still strong.
Here’s a good place to start
Read 4 tweets
Alec Stapp Profile picture
21 Jul
COVID deaths lag confirmed COVID cases by 2 weeks, according to UK data.

I created a chart comparing UK cases (lagged 2 weeks) & deaths to see how the third wave (with delta variant) is going relative to previous 2 waves.

Vaccination has severed the link between cases & deaths: Image
Data is from the great folks at @OurWorldInData.

All errors in analysis are my own (please let me know!)

ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
Here's a version comparing cases (lagged 2 weeks) & deaths for just the second and third waves. Image
Read 4 tweets
Alec Stapp Profile picture
13 Jul
Headline inflation just hit 5.4%, the highest rate since 2008.

Here are 4 charts on why it's premature to panic & 3 ideas for policymakers if they want to reduce inflation risk.

1. Market-based forecasts of medium-run inflation (5-10 years from today) remain anchored at 2.2%
2. Most of the inflation in June — 60% — is from cars.

As the global semiconductor shortage ebbs, we can expect inflation related to cars to return to its historical average.

(chart via @WhiteHouseCEA)
3. If you want to know where inflation is heading, look at median CPI.

In contrast to headline CPI, median CPI remains stable at 2.2% year-over-year.

Headline CPI is more volatile than median CPI, but historically it has reverted *toward* median CPI after short deviations.
Read 12 tweets
Alec Stapp Profile picture
12 Jul
I'm gonna stop you right there
wtf does "ultra, ultra low" even mean
"Interests at 1% were good for economic growth but interest rates at 0% caused GameStop"

got it, makes total sense
Read 11 tweets
Alec Stapp Profile picture
11 Jul
Wow — students with low test scores from a high-income household are more likely to finish college than students with high test scores from a low-income household
Via this @Noahpinion post on the complexities of America as a land of opportunity: noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-the-us-a-…
Two more striking charts (citing a Chetty et al 2018 paper):

"Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven entirely by large differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men; there are no such differences between black and white women."
Read 5 tweets
Alec Stapp Profile picture
9 Jul
President Biden is signing a major executive order this afternoon that includes 72 initiatives to increase competition across the economy.

The bulk of the EO is appropriately focused on the lack of competition in labor markets, healthcare markets & agricultural markets.

Thread:
The best part of the EO is the stuff on labor markets.

Banning/limiting non-competes and unnecessary occupational licensing will increase worker power.

Making it easier for workers to switch jobs and pursue economic opportunity will increase wages.
Healthcare markets are arguably the most broken markets in our economy and are in dire need of more competition.

Encouraging the FTC to ban "pay for delay" is an obvious win.

Highly recommend @MartinSGaynor's paper on how to increase competition: brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
Read 11 tweets

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