Cuomo just said the state's COVID death toll is 11,000 lower than the CDC's because the feds include "presumed" cases and NY counts only confirmed cases.

"We believe our number is more accurate," his aide Elizabeth Garvey said.

That's not the whole truth. 1/n
Another factor behind the discrepancy, as reported by @ReporterMarina, is that the state relies on data gathered from a limited set of institutions, such as hospitals and nursing homes, while excluding deaths that occurred anywhere else. apnews.com/article/health…
The impact of the state's two exclusions, presumed deaths and non-institutional deaths, can be seen in comparison to NYC data, which includes both.

The city tracker shows 28,402 confirmed deaths and 5,105 "probable" deaths, for a total of 33,507. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
The state tracker, by contrast, shows only 23,082 deaths in the five boroughs.

That's more than 5,320 lower than the city's count of *confirmed* deaths and 10,425 lower than the city's total count. covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVI…
The state obviously has the capability of counting the non-institutional deaths. As was said in today's briefing, the CDC's higher toll is based on data sent to it by the state.
NY has an unusually high number of deaths that were not laboratory-confirmed because its first wave hit before testing was widely available.

If accuracy is the concern, the state could report the numbers separately and explain its doubts about the "presumed" numbers.
As for the omission of non-institutional deaths, as well as deaths in prisons, group homes, hospices, etc., the Cuomo administration has yet to provide any rationale, let alone a persuasive one.
Hiding data on nursing homes helped to earn the governor a federal investigation and an impeachment inquiry.

Given that history, it's mind-boggling that his administration would still be selectively holding back pandemic data -- and claiming to be "more accurate."

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More from @NYHammond

23 Jul
FWIW, I'm told on good authority that the DOJ's decision does *not* affect the ongoing investigation of Cuomo administration by the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office.
The letter to @SteveScalise focuses on a preliminary inquiry opened under Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act and focused on public nursing homes, of which there only about 30 in New York.

That approach never seemed very promising, IMO.
empirecenter.org/publications/t…
*Brooklyn U.S. attorney's office, aka the Eastern District of New York.
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul
This new study finds that higher nursing-home staffing levels were linked to *worse* outcomes during the pandemic.

Facilities in the top staffing quartile had 92% higher infection rates and 133% higher mortality rates than those in the bottom quartile. healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hl…
These results are being published two months after the state Legislature passed a minimum staffing law that will force most NY nursing homes to hire more people.

More staff might be good in other ways, but it appears to increase the risk of spreading infectious diseases.
In March, @iskingsb and I found no clear correlation between staffing levels and COVID-19 mortality, and argued that boosting staff would not be an effective response to the pandemic.

These new results suggest that that staffing ratios might actually backfire.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
The state's crime wave is not confined to New York City.

In 20 non-NYC urban areas tracked by DCJS, shooting incidents jumped 75% between 2019 and 2020, which compares to a 50% increase for NYC over the same period. criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/s…
From 2019 to 2020, the number of murders inside and outside NYC rose at roughly the same rate (47% and 44%, respectively).

From 2011 to 2020, murders outside NYC were up 42%, while murders within NYC were down 9%.
To be clear: The murder *rate* in NYC is still higher than it is for the state as a whole.

But the trend outside the city has been worse in recent years, and the gap is closing.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
This op-ed is weird.

As far as I can tell, the Legislature passed only one bill on early intervention services this year & it works nothing like this.

In fact, it would *end* third-party coverage of EIS and fund the program with a tax on insurance.

timesunion.com/opinion/articl… Image
From the sponsor's memo: "Implementing this change would remove any obligation on insurers to pay
for EI services and replace it with a lump sum payment ..." assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?default_f…
The lump-sum payment would come from a 4% hike in the "covered lives assessment," a per-person tax on health coverage -- which, in reality, comes out of the pockets of premium payers, not insurers.

Background: empirecenter.org/publications/l…
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
This sentence includes one grossly misleading claim and one flatly inaccurate one.
news.littlesis.org/2020/02/14/ins…
$80B was RAND's estimated savings over *10 years.* That's about 2% of total health spending. It's based on multiple dubious assumptions, including the idea that health providers, Albany's most formidable lobbying force, will accept slower growth in payments.
RAND's first-year savings estimate was $2B or less than 1%, which is negligible given the enormous uncertainty involved in forecasting health care spending.
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
The NYS Legislature has voted to require doctors to prescribe naloxone, an anti-overdose drug, for certain high-risk patients using opioids.

Has the state ever mandated doctors to prescribe a certain medication before? crainsnewyork.com/health-care/tw…
This seems to intrude on the doctor-patient relationship in a pretty fundamental way.
Read 4 tweets

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