And a long range forecast (16 days GFS Precipitable Water). Unfortunately #INFA's gyre which spawned #Nepartak is not going away and nor it seems is #INFA's water. The typhoon will be gone leaving behind a massive shemozzel and lots more rain for China.
Moving East here's a view of India's monsoon today (RHS) and the Arabian Peninsula and #HornOfAfrica (LHS). Unusual monsoon powered storms continue over the Arabian Desert an in the Horn massive rains which risk flooding the Nile continues.
Here's a 10 day PWAT forecast for the same area from Australia's GFS forecast. The forecast shows the monsoon backing off a bit which will provide some welcome relief for the Arabian Peninsula which has been experiencing daily massive storms, and associated flooding.
A view of #NorthAfrica today. The air over the Sahara is holding high levels of atmospheric moisture. The top left you see some moisture condensing as cloud and crossing the Mediterranean, adding fuel to European storms where there was extreme flooding again yesterday.
The first of two animations which help illustrate how the unsually strong West African Monsoon is contributing to Europe's weather woes.
This image shows the Jetstream winds at 11-15kms up. Europe's storms have two sources of moisture visible here. A strong stream from the North Atlantic joins water coming up over the Western end of the Sahara driven a circular wind current sitting on top of a low.
Here's a view of the storms over Europe yesterday which are fairly obviously being assisted by the injection of water and storms coming in over Algeria and Italy.
And here we see today. With much the same thing happening, only getting bigger.
This is a similar overall setup to the pattern which brought the German Floods 11 days ago. Only this time the scale is larger and the circulation less defined.
This animation shows the next three days of jetstream level winds. For this period they remain favourable to providing further fuel to the European storm complex from the south West.
Here we see the PWAT picture in Europe (GFS model 16 days). Weather over the area looks set to remain wet for some time.
This 10 day jet stream forecast is what is moving the moisture to the east in the previous animation.
These surveillance threads will be an occasional feature going ahead. A weekly thread focussed on #NorthAfrica#HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast will also be maintained.
This video is about the work done by the “terrorist” who drove through the Magdeburg Christmas Market tonight at high speed killing injuring around 100 people.
How does a doctor practicing as a psychiatrist go from being a women’s rights defender focussed on Assisting Islamic women to escape an oppressive culture to being a multi murderer in his adopted country.
Meet @DrTalebJawad
A very unusual terrorist.
A good starting point for those interested in getting closer to the truth about what happened tonight is to visit @DrTalebJawad ‘s Twitter profile and look at his recent messages before the account gets locked.
It is immediately apparent that this is not your normal Islamic terrorist, in fact it quickly becomes apparent from his tweets that he was likely suffering from a psychotic break or something similar before he committed the horrific act of terrorism in Magdeburg.
This incident took place in Magdeburg a city relatively near to where I am currently in Eastern Germany. It was fairly late evening. But the news exploded locally very quickly on Twitter.
And the initial speculation was of course that the terrorist was Islamic and that it was another planned terror attack.
At this point several hours later however it looks like the perpetrator was having an accrue psychological break.
Follow @bartov_omer he is an Israeli Genocide Scholar and (my guess) a realist geopolitical analyst who will almost certainly be heard a lot in coming days and weeks. x.com/bartov_omer?s=…
…. In large part because his explanation of the true nature of the implementation of the current phase of the so-called “general’s plan” in Gaza and the criminality of @IsraeliPM Bibi Netanyahu is so clear and authoritative.
The war in Gaza is now over Bartov explains.
What is now happening, and what remains to be done on the a Israeli side is effectively the implementation of the full Zionist extremist (Ben Givir Smotrich and Netanyahu plan - I.e. removing Palestinians from Gaza altogether, an object that will be achieved through starving the remaining civilians and using other methods to make it impossible to continue to live there.
The strip is already being carved up into enclaves for this purpose. You could call them “Ghettos” (my word) corralling and keeping the Palestinian population separated whilst efforts to remake and settle the strip are completed.
. @amanpour It’s not just the IDF that responds to press questions with rote answers that are clearly false.
The U.S. @StateDept has been doing exactly the same thing throughout the war for 14 months. Parroting the line “Israel has a right to defend itself” when everyone in the planet knows this is not true.
I know you must know this also. We all do.
I commend your report but I ask you and your network to please go further and actively oppose this war. And to call for it to end.
It is clear now in recent statements from Trump and Netanyahu that another war is intended in the Middle East by the U.S. and Israel. Its advocates will stood start lining up to beat the drums for this war.
Please @CNN, it is now time to end all of this.
The question we all have then is “When will the U.S. bring this evil to an end?”
A war with Iran 21 years after the horrific war in Iraq will have devastating consequences beyond imagining.
In its unwavering support for Netanyahu these past 14 months the U.S. is in the process now of destroying itself. Just as Israel is, or has done already.
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.
“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”
The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.
As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.
How can this still be continuing?
How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.
It is certainly already nearly as desolate.
Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.
This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.
Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”
“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”
For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.
And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.
The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.
And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”