And a long range forecast (16 days GFS Precipitable Water). Unfortunately #INFA's gyre which spawned #Nepartak is not going away and nor it seems is #INFA's water. The typhoon will be gone leaving behind a massive shemozzel and lots more rain for China.
Moving East here's a view of India's monsoon today (RHS) and the Arabian Peninsula and #HornOfAfrica (LHS). Unusual monsoon powered storms continue over the Arabian Desert an in the Horn massive rains which risk flooding the Nile continues.
Here's a 10 day PWAT forecast for the same area from Australia's GFS forecast. The forecast shows the monsoon backing off a bit which will provide some welcome relief for the Arabian Peninsula which has been experiencing daily massive storms, and associated flooding.
A view of #NorthAfrica today. The air over the Sahara is holding high levels of atmospheric moisture. The top left you see some moisture condensing as cloud and crossing the Mediterranean, adding fuel to European storms where there was extreme flooding again yesterday.
The first of two animations which help illustrate how the unsually strong West African Monsoon is contributing to Europe's weather woes.
This image shows the Jetstream winds at 11-15kms up. Europe's storms have two sources of moisture visible here. A strong stream from the North Atlantic joins water coming up over the Western end of the Sahara driven a circular wind current sitting on top of a low.
Here's a view of the storms over Europe yesterday which are fairly obviously being assisted by the injection of water and storms coming in over Algeria and Italy.
And here we see today. With much the same thing happening, only getting bigger.
This is a similar overall setup to the pattern which brought the German Floods 11 days ago. Only this time the scale is larger and the circulation less defined.
This animation shows the next three days of jetstream level winds. For this period they remain favourable to providing further fuel to the European storm complex from the south West.
Here we see the PWAT picture in Europe (GFS model 16 days). Weather over the area looks set to remain wet for some time.
This 10 day jet stream forecast is what is moving the moisture to the east in the previous animation.
These surveillance threads will be an occasional feature going ahead. A weekly thread focussed on #NorthAfrica#HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast will also be maintained.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla