Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #HornOfAfrica

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North Africa, Ethiopia and Middle East long range rainfall forecast bulletin:

The interaction between the two greatest Equatorial forests is having a massive impact on weather (see quoted thread for more).
This bulletin begins with a look at Ethiopia where rains over the #HornOfAfrica have been steadily building in April (img: today). A strong big rainy season is indicated by this, notwithstanding a strong La Nina which is typically associated with droughts (see quoted thread ^^).
We can see a glimpse of the GERD today - Easter Sunday in the Western Church - through the clouds (Rosieres Top Right - GERD Bottom Left). Satellite images of the dam - which this year will have its 2nd filling - may be increasingly hard to get with increasing cloud.
Read 40 tweets
A high resolution view over the #HornOfAfrica and Nile Basins from this morning from the @NASA Worldview satellite system. #GERD #Ethiopia #Somalia #Somaliland #Sudan #SouthSudan #Kenya #Uganda
A closeup of Ethiopia's #GERD and #Sudan's Rosieres dams.
And a close up of the upper reaches of the White Nile showing Lake Albert and Lake Kyoga which are downstream from the Lake Victoria outlet of the White Nile at Jinja.
Read 4 tweets
Rains over the #HornOfAfrica are back to monsoon level, and the heavier rains are forecast to remain for at least a fortnight.

This week's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow.
Today's forecasts big picture is of the view from above of North Africa, The Middle East, The Horn of Africa India and southern parts of Europe and Central Asia.

Ethiopia's @DemekeHasen has just started speaking to the #UNGA on behalf of the peoples of Ethiopia. Image
Here's a picture of Ethiopia's Deputy PM and Foreign Affairs Minister @DemekeHasen. Image
Read 24 tweets
It appears the US assumption that the rains are ending soon in the Middle East and Horn of Africa is incorrect.

A rainfall forecast for the #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follows.
This is the cause, the Indian Monsoon is not over yet. Here we see a 16 day forecast through till early October.
This GFS long range forecast shows a significant monsoon boost which has the capacity to bring significant rain to both the Middle East and the Horn of Africa in the coming fortnight, including a late season tropical storm to Somalia.
Read 17 tweets
Great so we now know who is responsible for this report. .

@AvvZaki @OmarSMahmood @mutiga, why is the abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7 missing from the report?

It's clear this abduction is part of the story after he was abducted off the streets of Nairobi on Sept. 9th.
And why are PM Roble's numerous - on their face overtly destructive - actions in relation to the coming election [including his visit to Kenya] brushed over in a narrative which focuses almost exclusively on a unproven allegation about the death of Ikran Tahlil?
Furthermore @CrisisGroup @alanboswell

& authors of this report: @AvvZaki, @OmarSMahmood,

What is the role of the former UN observer @Dibjir and his shadowy Sahan Research intelligence group - staffed by former @CrisisGroup personnel - in all of this?
Read 36 tweets
It appears that @MartinPlaut is completely losing it.

His latest EEPA #HornOfAfrica Situation Report/TPLF Propaganda Bulletin is really quite peculiar.…
Assistance with taking this apart line by line would be appreciated. This paragraph really stands out.

My latest understanding re Afar is that TDF has massacred and beheaded numerous Afari children.

Is there any supporting evidence to this claim? Where does it come from?
Mr Plaut makes much play out of his former role as an Editor with the BBC World Service. This newsletter appears on its face to be EU funded and it is nothing more than a TPLF propaganda flyer.

This bit is a google translation of @reda_getachew's latest tweets.
Read 6 tweets
There is an obvious pathway for the @JoeBiden to rehabilitate its international reputation and change the subject from its debacle in Afghanistan. I.E. to focus on preventing a new foreign policy catastrophe in Ethiopia.

Thread follows....
At least since 1991 and the fall of the DERG, which coincided with the fall of disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ethiopia, and the TPLF led governments which followed have been been close allies to the U.S.
This long-standing relationship deepened in the years after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and became a partnership for counter-terrorism.
Read 41 tweets
Pacifica Radio Clip from @AnnGarrison, includes interview with U.S. diaspora Tigrayan who is opposed to U.S. Policy in Ethiopia.
Thread from Professor Ann Fitzgerald, Director, Balsillie School of Int’lAffairs, a Canadian academic specialist in the #HornOfAfrica and #Ethiopia conflict who is currently in Ethiopia.
Read 11 tweets
It is time for a change of subject, a reset in the Tigray war narrative, which has been manufactured from day one.

It is apparent this will not come via the Media nor the international community who have decided to make their bed with the TPLF.
So we will have to do this ourselves. And I have a plan.
But I will not be able to do this alone and am calling on the Ethiopian twitter community, especially those of you who are journalists to assist.
Read 42 tweets
Today's rainfall/weather update for the #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follows.

The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
Here is the long-range GFS model PWAT forecast for the Indian Monsoon. Towards the end it strengthens and we see high levels of moisture heading for the #HornOfAfrica.
Here is a big picture view of the greater region including all the areas that this weekly bulletin will cover.

A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
Read 36 tweets
Unfortunately @PowerUSAID @SamanthaJPower appears to have learned absolutely nothing from her visit. This interview with NPR is self-regarding and childish.

This IV undermines an positivity from her somewhat conciliatory remarks at her press conference in Addis.
The delegation of responsibility for diplomacy over the #HornOfAfrica made to the @USAID agency needs to be revoked. The @StateDept will struggle to disentangle @PowerUSAID's ego from this conflict if she remains in any manner associated with it.
The U.S Govt. needs to now make a bold step if there is to be any hope of restoring any order to the #HornOfAfrica. At this stage it is unclear that they wish to do so, and inside Ethiopia their credibility has been deeply undermined by @PowerUSAID's visit.
Read 14 tweets
A global weather surveillance thread.

We begin in the West Pacific where Typhoon #INFA is now over China bringing rain to 100s of millions.
Here's a closeup of #INFA over the past 12 hours rain bands have now reached the already flooded Henan province.
Some early coverage of the impact here:…

Including more harrowing video of flooding.
Read 18 tweets
Dear @SamanthaJPower,

You appear to be getting inadequate briefings.

Please let me enlighten you. The aid situation in Tigray is due to the TPLF not accepting an unconditional unilateral ceasefire and instead choosing to mount a multi-front military offensive against Ethiopia.
As a result Ethiopia is preparing for a defensive war on three fronts inside Ethiopian territory.
1. On the road to Gondar where the TPLF says it has taken Abbi Akray in Amhara Region.
2. On the road south from Mekele to Addis where TPLF says it has taken the town of Kodo.

And 3. on the road which previously was the main route for bringing aid to Tigray through the Afar region where the TPLF says it has taken the town of Mille.

Last Sunday 18th July a @WFP convoy was attacked by the TPLF, and this is the reason that road is now closed.
Read 11 tweets
This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.

Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Here we see Japan again and tropical storm #Nepartak which is on route towards the Olympics.

#Nepartak is a child of #INFA's gyre and you can see an atmospheric river coming from #INFA's outflows which leads directly to her.
This weekly thread is the sequel to the daily threads published April-July in solidarity with the efforts to complete the 2nd filling of the #GERD dam under difficult circumstances.

There hasn't been a clear view of the #GERD in the past week sadly, just a glimpse.
Read 30 tweets
This deep dive is for anyone interested in the unfolding #Ethiopia Security Crisis the #Tigray War and the information warfare associated with it. Full spectrum analysis.

@RaniaKhalek & @EugenePuryear
The final thesis provides an interesting explanation for the hard to explain U.S. position in relation to this #HornOfAfrica Crisis.

I.E. the US is just opposed to having independent free countries in such an important geo-strategic location.
The way @EugenePuryear lays out of the history, detail and context of this crisis leaves me with an uneasy feeling of déjà vu. There are echoes of the lead up to previous international relations castastrophes, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria.

Have we not learned anything?
Read 10 tweets
. @SecBlinken, @JosepBorrellF, you insisted Ethiopia pursue a path of peace in Tigray to enable humanitarian assistance to to millions experiencing famine.

The TPLF rejected a ceasefire and continues its offensive against the legally recognised Govt.
In recent days TPLF mounted attacks across the border into Afar Region, reportedly killing locals and allegedly using child soldiers as part of their army. These statements from @reda_getachew are very clear, he claims he is fighting and winning a war.
And yet you remain completely silent. Daring not to criticise the TPLF who are are now, transparently the aggressor in this conflict.

Reda is a constant liar and propagandist. It seems odd that the two great western superpowers wish to align themselves with such a man.
Read 16 tweets
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.

The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC. ImageImage
#Cempaka is a midget Typhoon (1). Spinning like a top south west of Hong Kong.

Disregarding its size, #Cempaka is directing rain from Hanoi to Taiwan (2). The forecast (3 & previous tweet) shows Cempaka moving west in a loop, but this hasn't started yet. ImageImageImage
Read 31 tweets
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
In honour of the #GERD we will change up the order of today's bulletin and get right to the most important issue, rain over the #Abbay basin, which due to its great quantity and consistency made this possible over such a short time period.
But first a brief explanation, as when it comes to the GERD not all rainfall counts. The first image here shows the path of the #BlueNile / #Abbay from Lake Tana to Khartoum where it meets the White Nile and becomes "The Nile".
Read 40 tweets
The presentation of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst has changed dramatically today with the consolidation of activity over the Arabian Peninsula into a single huge storm which is currently moving into the Red Sea over Makkah and Jeddah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The scale of the storm over Islam's holiest city is huge, larger than France. Two more huge storms loom over the greater region tonight. One on the Iranian Gulf coast and another supercell thunderstorm complex over New Delhi/Rajastan, India, the size of the United Kingdom.
The last six hours in three animations, first India which is experiencing a massive monsoon day today in the north.

[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
Read 30 tweets
Today is possibly the apex of this #ArabianMonsoonBurst which began several days ago now. It's hard to imagine it getting bigger than this.

Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
The animation above is for 12 hours hence the arriving and departing light effect. As always the engine behind this is the Indian Monsoon which you can see here this morning gathering strength.
A close up from the end of today shows how the big storms over #SaudiArabia are generating new atmospheric rivers of moisture, or plumes, over the Sahara, you can see these top right.

[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
Read 39 tweets
This is a long statement, probably a bit too long, but interesting and important. My reading is that Ethiopia has not yet decided to abandon the unilateral ceasefire, but that frustration is going, both with the TPLF and their ongoing offensive....
... and with ongoing one-sided diplomatic/media understanding of the Tigray conflict.
The @NYTimes story from @declanwalsh (see below) has become a lightning rod for public and government concerns that Ethiopia is not being listened to or being given due respect internationally.
Read 37 tweets
The magnitude of #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now apparent. A major storm is about to cross the Red Sea and arrive in the #HornOfAfrica. Behind it are two enormous super-cell thunderstorms.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The rain activity shown in the @zoom_earth animation preceding is only radar based, Saudi radar, and in this case is complementary to the @Meteoblue satellite rainfall estimates you see below. There is likely significantly more rainfall in this than you see here.
Here we see India (the heart of this Monsoon), this morning to 10am East Africa Time. I.E. around seven hours ago.
Read 23 tweets
On day 3 of #ArabianMonsoonBlast here's the view over the region tonight. This is definitely bringing rain, and lots of it to both Tigray and #GERD.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's Big Pictures provide a view of the entire planet today in three images.

1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia

Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
I found another #MonsoonBurst in the pipeline, this time over the Western Pacific. One which shows very clearly that weird weather is now a universal phenomena in the Northern Hemisphere. And it all started with another Typhoon...

Thread attached...
Read 31 tweets

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