Thread by @therealarod1984

Texas C19 Fatality reporting 7/27

Last week I made projections based on how death certs arrive to the state. Projected days 7-28 going back from 7/20. 22 projections. Fatalities are coming in below projections, and divergence from hospitalizations is significant - so far.

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1419652230341332995

Gonna geek out a little. You have to read this chart & see comments.

Last week I projected 7-28 days back from 7/20, using the arrival estimator. Those projections are now 14-35 days back. 17 of 22 projections in green haven't made or were revised downwards this week.

2/n

Stay with me. So based on my 7/20 projections I projected the graph, showing fatalities starting to rise following the hospitalization curve. Here is what I projected last week vs actual from yesterday (full chart in 1/n)

3/n

So on 7/27 I projected day 7-28s back, revising days 14-28, since I already projected them last week when they were days 7-21.

Anyway, using new projections here is what I'm projecting through July 20 now. It obviously is still following the hospitalization curve.

4/n

To conclude (I'll tweet the original primer in 6/n) - deaths will increase this week, but likely lower than my projections. They are arriving sooner & in lower quantities than expected, 7 days into my analysis.

We will soon know how virulent the Delta Variant is or isnt.

5/n

Here was the primer on how death certificates arrive to the state and now I came up with the arrival estimator and the projections.

6/end

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1417550891842932737?s=20