Thread by @TrungTPhan

Tokyo last held the summer Olympics in 1964, less than 2 decades removed from the ruins of WWII.

To host the event, the city under took the "the greatest urban transformation ever".

It was a huge success, but one we are unlikely to ever see again.

Here's why 🧵

1/ Tokyo's OG Olympics story begins in 1959, when it won the bid to host the 1964 Games.

It wasn't the city we know today: 14yrs earlier was the Bombing of Tokyo, when US planes conducted "the most destructive bombing raid ever".

In many ways, the city was still recovering.

2/ At the time, Tokyo was a "polluted mess" that few wanted to visit:

◻️Poor roads / bad traffic
◻️Tallest buildings maxed at ~10 storeys.
◻️Underdeveloped sewage (1/4th of Tokyo had a flush toilet)

Amidst this, the city's population exploded from 3.5m (1945) to 10m (1963).

3/ For Japan, the Games was a ticket to re-enter the global community.

Further, it was an opportunity to modernize Tokyo and invite foreign investment.

The 1964 slogan -- "Faster, Higher, Stronger" -- is exactly what the Japanese government wanted for Tokyo: .

4/ By the time the Games started, Tokyo had built:

◻️10, 000 new buildings
◻️ 8 overhead expressways
◻️ 2 subway lines and a monorail (Haneda Airport to downtown)

Most memorably: a bullet train between Tokyo and Osaka (unveiled by Emperor Hirohito 9 days before the Games).

5/ Some historians described Tokyo's rapid change as “the greatest urban transformation ever”.

The timing for the first Asian host city couldn't have been better.

There was a boom in color TVs and 1964 would be the first Olympics to televise events globally live in color.

6/ For Japanese citizens, the Games was book-ended by 2 memorable events:

◻️ Yoshinori Sakai -- who was born in Hiroshima the day the 1st atomic bomb dropped (08/06/1945) -- lit the Olympic flame
◻️ Japan's womens team beat the Soviet Union in the inaugural volleyball tournament

7/ The 1964 Olympics was right in the heart of Japan's post-war "Economic Miracle", which saw it become the world's 2nd largest economy by 1980s.

The playbook -- combining an economic boost w/ an introduction to the world -- was duplicated by Seoul (1988) and Beijing (2008).

8/ The wild success of the 1964 Tokyo Olympics looks unlikely to be replicated.

Why? The investment is now simply too much.

On average, the sports-related cost of hosting the Games is $12B with most funds going towards construction (30+ sporting venues, an Olympic Village).

9/ The biggest pain in the ass is "cost-overruns", when expenses far exceed estimates.

2 examples:
◻️ Montreal was over budget 7x and took 30 years to pay of debt used to fund the 1976 Games
◻️ Athen's financial crises in 2010s was made worse by debt it owed for 2004 Games

10/ In addition to a big investment, Olympics is losing its appeal b/c:

◻️ The International Olympic Com (IOC) is taking more TV revenue (4% in 1990s vs. 70% from Rio 2016)
◻️ Upkeep for (often unused) stadium costs $30m/yr
◻️ Cities lose precious real estate
◻️ citizens pissed

11/ The 2020 Tokyo Olympics was supposed to be a model for mature host cities, with a "compact Games" (main sporting venues within 8km of the Olympic Village).

Instead, it will be the most expensive Summer games ever: $20B+ when its all said and done (vs. ~$200m for 1964).

12/ Of course, COVID made things worse (no ticket revenue, high health costs).

But -- unlike 1964 -- its hard to see how an "up-and-coming" developing city can ever spend $10B+.

The bidding process is also no joke: Chicago spent 10 years planing and $100m (and still lost 2016).

13/ The number of cities able to host the Games is dwindling:

Summer 2004: 12 cities bid
Summer 2020: 5 cities bid
Winter 2022: Only 2 cities bid! (China beat out Kazakhstan)

As for the next 2 summer Olympics, you may have heard of these cities (Paris 2024, and LA 2028).

13/ If you enjoyed that, def FOLLOW @TrungTPhan.

I write threads to make people smarter, sprinkled in with memes to make them dumber:

https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1380017977794260993?s=20

14/ Sources

Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/features/…

WSJ: wsj.com/articles/the-t…

Study: journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…

BBC: open.spotify.com/episode/45JJmD…

Insider: businessinsider.com/future-olympic…

15/ Random side note: I got married in Boracay, Philippines and did my stay in Tokyo en route.

Stayed at the New Otani Hotel, which was built for the 1964 Olympics and a at the time — was Tokyo’s tallest building (17 storeys).

16/ Tokyo 1962 vs. 2015 (and beyond)