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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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28 Jul, 5 tweets, 1 min read
we just gonna act like the green line doesn't exist?
yes, the green line is lower than the red line.

but it's nowhere near zero. we have a fifth of families where parents believe that learning IMPROVED during the pandemic.

that seems important!
figuring out what happened there would be nice.
obviously you can bundle the "same" response either way but it seems like the "worse" line should be MUCH bigger if the situation is as devastating as the loudest voices suggest
also, quick question...

how many kids are in school in June, and what share of kids were still online in like April and May?

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Before COVID, nobody laughed at the CDC saying stuff like “the age of infectious disease is over.” The CDC was rapidly expanding its focus on non-communicable diseases and we all got to live this easy happy life where we never had to worry about it.
This period of frivolous decadence, vanity, and callous disregard for human life is over. The truth is that since the 1980s, we have seen a very large increase in novel infectious diseases arising, and the number of potential threats is rising fast too.
We are probably re-entering a period where infectious disease is gonna be a more frequent issue. If it’s not SARS or MERS or COVID or Ebola or AIDS it’ll be something else: resistant tuberculosis, for example.
Read 17 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Okay, more on this.

China's 2020 Census showed 253 million kids ages 0-14.

Prior official data showed 239 million births 2006-2020.

Interpolating survey-reported ASFRs onto best-guess populations yields just 185 million births in that period.
So who do we trust?

Is the Census correct that there were 253 million kids ages 0-14, and so prior birth estimates were too low by *14 million*?
That could be true. But walking that birth estimate back onto the childbearing population produces pretty high ASFR estimates.
Read 23 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
the correct way to order medals is to multiply the (Number of Competitors in Event) / (Number of Competitors In Event From Country X) by 3 for a gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze, and use that as "medal points."
Because countries have different numbers of competitors qualifying for each event and because events themselves have different numbers of qualifying participants the actual extent of competition in events varies. Golds are not in fact equally impressive in all events.
An argument could be made against penalizing a country for having more entrants since they still had to qualify, however participating in the Olympics is not *purely* on merit.
Read 4 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Sports are corrupt. I don't mean corrupting, I mean sporting institutions at almost all levels are corrupt. High school sports are corrupt in their recruiting of kids; you don't get shady recruitment for math class.
College sports are corrupt: witness the admission buying scandal, or else look at the non-criminal ways wealthy kids get into prestigious schools as "athletes."
Professional sports are corrupt: hello taxpayer financed stadium deals!
Read 15 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
The reason you should be skeptical of these studies is it’s not like men have more hours of the day, and comparing coupled men and women and coupled parents we know that men have virtually sleep+leisure time… so there’s gotta be work not classified as such.
The exact issue varies. Sometimes what’s happening is men’s contribution to yard work is not counted as house work. Sometimes commuting isn’t counted. Sometimes there are no demographic controls so it’s just prevalence of single parents driving the result.
But the reality is that in apples to apples comparisons men and women have extremely small differences in their “total work commitments.” And the higher prevalence of single moms than single dads is not ONLY about deadbeat dads, but also…
Read 6 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
27 Jul
Bangladesh did an absolutely massive randomized controlled trial on mask promotion at the village level, with results to be published.... soon I believe? They published effects of promotion on mask wearing, haven't published death results yet.
You can read about the results of mask promotion on mask wearing here:
nber.org/papers/w28734
They conducted seropositivity tests in June to see if COVID infections actually were higher/lower 12-months post intervention. They should be publishing results.... any day now!
Read 4 tweets

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