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29 Jul, 6 tweets, 3 min read
1/
A bullish development for the $CRYPTO space over recent weeks has been that '25-delta skew' has trended lower and is now below 0 for the first time since early May 2021...

I'll attempt to briefly explain the significance of this now

#BTC
2/
First, let's visualize the #BTC chart and '25-delta skew' chart to show how the two are correlated!

When skew peaks, it often leads a #BTC rally, when skew bottoms it often signals a #BTC sell-off... Monitoring skew in early May would have told you that a sell-off was near ImageImage
3/

What the hell is '25-delta skew' and why is it important?

This metric measures the relative 'expensiveness' of calls (bullish bets) to puts (bearish bets) - a reading above 0 indicates demand for puts (bearish), the opposite is also true!

@skewdotcom skew calculation below Image
4/
Often puts are bought by traders to hedge when they are fearful of price falling further!

Downward trending skew tells of reduced demand for puts, and shows that traders are more confident about the bottom being in
5/

This is just one of many tools to use when analyzing the market, but is a very telling one imo

So long as this metric continues to trend down, bulls are in control!
2.1/

The BTC chart has a typo...

Corrected below! 👇 ImageImage

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More from @tedtalksmacro

tedtalksmacro Profile picture
11 Aug
1/
Altcoin request video analysis, I've selected about 20 coins suggested by you guys to do some charting on!

First up $DOT and $LINK 👇
2/
$ALGO and $MATIC
3/
$ERSDL and $ONE
Read 9 tweets
tedtalksmacro Profile picture
15 Jun
1/
The @federalreserve deliver its statement on monetary policy and updated economic projections on Wednesday

This has the potential to create a large, volatile move across markets, including $CRYPTO!

I'll do my best to explain the significance of this now

(RT appreciated)
2/

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the US Federal Reserve has stimulated the US economy like never before, with the goal of leading the US economy out of a recessionary environment.
3/
In the process of delivering the monetary stimulus, the FED has promoted financial risk-taking and provided the catalyst for a sustained bull run 🔥

Up until this point, I dare say that most have benefited from such risk-taking… which is great!
Read 16 tweets
tedtalksmacro Profile picture
7 Jun
1/ Here's why Thursday, June 10, has the potential to significantly move financial markets (including $CRYPTO)

(Retweets appreciated!)
2/

June 10 sees KEY economic data out of the US scheduled for release at 12:30pm UTC...

This data has the potential to 'spook' investors into selling their 'long-risk' positions.

'long-risk' referring to equities, commodities and $CRYPTO etc.
3/

Given the current uber-relaxed stance to monetary policy by central banks, most investors are currently positioned for risk-ON (long equities, crypto, commodities etc.)

Borrowing money and therefore spending/investing it is currently very cheap, thanks to Central Banks.
Read 15 tweets
tedtalksmacro Profile picture
25 May
1/
'Max pain' is often talked about and is made out to be quite complex, so let's make it simple!

The 'Max pain' price refers to the option 'strike price' for which the most number of options contracts will expire worthless 📉

Follow this thread and you may learn something 😀
2/

The 'max pain' theory suggests that the underlying asset price e.g. #Bitcoin will gravitate towards that max pain price headed into the option expiry (OPEX)
3/
Theory behind this is that typically market makers attempt to remain 'hedged' against their open interest

When a market maker deals a 'call' or 'put' it's in their best interest to remain hedged that position. They do this by longing/shorting the futures market for example.
Read 7 tweets
tedtalksmacro Profile picture
8 Mar
So, Crypto and Macro Financial Market Analysis huh?

The two surely cannot go together, one touted a Ponzi scheme by many, the other has been around serving our society for centuries... surely, you are taking the piss by even inferring that the two are correlated!

A THREAD!
1) What is it and Why care about Macro Analysis?

It's not important to understand the ins and outs of what defines macro-analysis, to put it simply, it is analyzing a particular market over the medium-term, considering fundamental drivers that will underpin it‘s performance.
2) Macro analysis is almost always boring and larped on by academics, these people often explain moves in hindsight, useless to us as traders… but what if I was to tell you that you can predict and effectively speculate on the macro-environment, to create ACTIONABLE trade ideas.
Read 18 tweets
tedtalksmacro Profile picture
3 Mar
For those new to trading, it is so important to understand whether we are risk-ON or risk-OFF at any given point in time...

It is also important to decipher whether or not we are at key levels that are likely to send risk in the opposite direction.

A THREAD
1) VIX - The Volatility index represents the market's expectations for Volatility over the coming 30 days.

A move higher in VIX = RISK-OFF.

The market is scared of volatility and therefore seeks safe-haven assets. When VIX moves higher, BTC moves lower, for example. Image
2) See VIX overlaid with BTC.

As the FED stepped in to suppress market volatility in March/April of 2020, VIX topped, BTC bottomed. Image
Read 9 tweets

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