If - and it’s still a big if - exposure notifications from the NHS covid app/T&T were a major factor in driving the recent UK case decline, it’s worth considering what might happen next... 1/
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1410868862627758083
It’s plausible that a rapidly growing epidemic + rapid testing availability + exposure notifications (both formal via T&T/app and informal among friends) has led to large numbers of people who would have been involved in transmission instead quarantining. 2/
If exposure risk is concentrated in time (e.g. because of Euro matches), quarantine timing would also have been concentrated in the period immediately after. Which means we can make a testable hypothesis about what might happen next… 3/
If exposure notifications have led to a ‘mini-lockdown’ among younger groups with lots of contacts, with testing identifying cases within these groups, it may create an analogous dynamic to the large scale testing effort in Slovakia last autumn: science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65… 4/
Cases in Slovakia dropped by about 50% then started rising again as people came out of isolation/quarantine. If above is what’s happening in UK (again, big if), then post-Euro final quarantine periods (i.e. effectively mini-lockdowns) will have ended around 21 July... 5/ 
UK isn’t in exactly same situation because widely available rapid tests will continue to pick up infections (and interrupt transmission) – plus there's host of other factors at play (weather, school holidays, rising vaccine coverage) that will be contributing to dynamics... 6/
But if above is what’s going on, there’s still lot of susceptibility out there - so if adherence to quarantine drops off, could see another rise in cases in same groups very soon. 7/7
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