Thread by @YearOfTheKraken

I will share my opinion on the insurgency situation in the North East in 2021 sometime later

Okay, so, is there a serious insurgency threat in North East in 2021? Not really. Why? Because they are far too integrated into India than they were 30 years ago. Children of former insurgents study in Indian colleges. When they need treatment, they go to major cities.

The important thing to note here is that the insurgency was led and sustained by the elite section of these societies. But the elite section has now been integrated into the Indian Union. They sit in governments and hold political power. Why would they want an insurgency?

Some might argue they sit in political power, which makes them more dangerous. No, actually. Holding political power under the constitution of India indicates they have been tamed/co-opted, or whatever word you want to use. And they get to rule in turn, so where's the problem?

Now, the second part of the question, can they not turn against India if their unreasonable demands are not met? They could but there are costs to it. Large sections of these states are dependent on India for a better life. And people will turn on them if they go out of control.

Vast sections of these states have got their first taste of modernity due to association with the Indian Union. The thing about modernity is it is too addictive. The relite section of these societies go to places like Delhi, Bangalore to study. They are assimilated as a process.

Take a look at the anti-CAA protests. Groups like ULFA started dancing again but what impact did they have? Yeah, the protests might have seemed like a big deal on Twitter but people from my dad's generation would tell you it was not even close to what happened during their time.

And BJP won again lol. It was precisely immigration issues that had sparked insurgency in Assam 30 years ago. And now? It could not even oust the ruling party from power. Things have changed. North East has moved on.

The biggest indication of it was the fact that during the height of the CAA protests, crowd at the Guwahati Cricket Stadium was singing Vande Mataram. It was a goosebumps moment and symbolic of how far the state has come. But then, Assam was always more integrated than others.

But the thing is, the ruling class in states like Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya etc use the insurgent past as a blackmail tactic to exact more and more demands from the Union Govt. The Govt does not want too trouble, so they just pay them off to maintain status quo.

Paying them off is the easier option for the Indian Govt, so they do that. But that creates an unhealthy loop. Whenever they want something, they raise insurgent bogey and start talking big. The Indian Govt pays them off so next time, they do it again. And so it continues.

Look at Mizoram for example. Its govt wants something so it has initiated this mess. And you have certain Mizos online who have nothing better to do so they are chatting shit on social media. Do you really think these people will pick up arms against India? Come on.

My PG mates in Kolkata were Mizos, three of them. Two years we stayed in the same PG together. There were guys from Bihar and Jharkhand and Odisha as well. And all of us became very good friends. The only dispute that occurred was the one occasion when they brought pork inside 😂

The guys from Bihar and Jharkhand got pissed and threw a fit, so I mediated between them. They were younger to us, so I explained that it was only pork and not beef, so they should chill. They offered me some, which I accepted, after that the other guys calmed down too. Lol

Anyway, back to the original point. NE States are too integrated now to see any serious insurgency. But the ruling class can still create some trouble, but max is the sort of shit we are seeing with the farmer protests. But it is easy to see why Indian Govt wants to avoid that.

As a side note, Dimapur in Nagaland has a huge Bengali population. Dimapur is the commercial capital of the state. It is my hometown. There are lots of teachers from South India in Nagaland too. They go there to teach in missionary schools.

That's why I find sentiments such as these amusing. The insurgency is over, India has won. But the Indian ruling class still doesn't want to admit they have won. Within the next 20/25 years, even they will be forced to admit that they have won. Lol

https://twitter.com/governorswaraj/status/1420802425321971713?s=20